Trends

 Trend 1. The President reaffirms his status as the only subject of power, just to make sure.

No, I do not mean his extraordinary message to Parliament. In fact, the firing of the Ukrainian National Television Company's President drew much keener and longer attention in the media and among politicians than the message and the budget bill put together (a significant fact in itself, showing that people can tell really important issues when they see them).

Getting channels and periodicals under control appears the most arresting game for the President's team these days, being regarded as an effective means of reasserting oneself and stressing one's role in the next election campaign. Looking back at Messrs. Yeltsin's and Kuchma's campaigns, it is not difficult to believe that a second term in office can be obtained without too much trouble, just by using the right election techniques. Whether they will parrot Lisovsky's or Chubais's stratagems or will come up with a brand new Ukrainian version is not that important. One feels strongly tempted to make the coming elections yet another computer game. Someone makes promises that everyone knows will never be kept and others make no promises at all, as if admitting that they will not lift a finger to reach any lofty goals.

Of course, no one is deceiving the electorate. It is just an imagemaking move. And the electorate either knows or can guess it. Statistics in the poll carried by The Day are graphic evidence of the Ukrainian people's fatalism: 50% believe a falsified result in the next election quite possible; 19% are certain of it. In other words, for want of anything better, the voters accept the existing rules for a game that could be called "candidate and his quarry." But even if it were a computer game, it seems worth remembering that 1994 the people voted for a lean truth-seeking man with thinning hair and now it takes some effort to find in this stately person, a bit on the heavy side, that painful sensitivity toward the long-suffering people.

To return to the main thing, no matter what they say, it is not the entourage that influences the President but the President who selects people to form his entourage. In this sense the competition between his two aides, the present and the former one, turned out lost by the present, now former one. The latter is still a lawmaker and presidential adviser. It is anyone's guess what tipped the scales: Mr. Syvkovych's slackening influence victimizing Mr. Kniazhytsky or the latter's actions being used to rock the first Presidential aide's boat. In such cases the usual clichО is, "The contenders should not lose heart." The show goes on. Ihor Bakai is believed to have invented an excellent formula for presidential favorites when describing in vivid detail the competence and agility of those who got a sheriff's star and power over a certain territory. Now seems the right time to hunt for such stars in the key industries  - natural gas, oil, and power  - as well as in the privatization and banking spheres. And in the media. This is how "administrative resources" are collected. It is also true, however, that in a year or eighteen months every such sheriff may well find himself in bad odor with the President, as evidenced by the entire history of Mr. Kuchma's entourage. Of his 1994 team perhaps only Messrs. Horbulin and Ryzhov plus the newly "reinstated" Volkov are still there.

The life of the elect is rich in inner and outer conflicts. Those who failed to get the lucky numbers are already crowding outside eager to get in. The competition is mind-boggling and the rules are very tough. However, the President proves an eager spectator. The important thing is not who wins but what he presents on a silver platter to the umpire. People can be shuffled and reshuffled endlessly, but the pattern remains unchanged. He who brings more to the altar will get the laurels.

Who says there is no power center in Ukraine? Perhaps there is no political will, but there is the President's will and a very tangible one. He can and does control the alignment of influence groups, programming their movement vectors. It is not some mythical elite groups' but the President's interests that form and balance those of all the influence groups put together. They all move in the channel of the President's personal interests. Not some group's but his and his alone.

It gets so that one starts having doubts about all those jostling influence groups being able to determine their own strategic interests in politics without constantly looking back at the Guarantor of the Constitution. Probably what we have is not an elite but some precursor of an elite formation in a state of political infantilism. Let us leave the issue open for the time being.

Trend 2. "We need a state resolute and flexible, capable of serving the interests of the broadest masses and implementing the will of the ruling class."

This concept does not originate from Ukraine. Lev Chernoi, a Russian oligarch not very much in the media limelight, thus commented on his strategic objectives in the Komsomolskaya Pravda (November 19). The man is known to be especially active in the iron and steel industry. It was his second appearance in the press, causing quite some reverberations in the Russian beau monde. What made the situation unusual was that Mr. Chernoi had never before made any political moves. The reason I quoted him is that this statement sounds more "strategic" than, say, our President's message to Parliament, the more so that both were made public the same day. Anyone who cared could compare and draw conclusions.

To begin with, Mr. Chernoi considers himself a member of the ruling class and declares its complete and unconditional responsibility for the country before the nation and history. In fact, capitalists turn into the ruling class only when putting forth a historic project supported by the people. In his words, there are two conflicting approaches: holding and strengthening power or "being parasitic on the budget and going through the motions of doing something, the way it was until August 17, 1998." Those adopting the latter approach are not in power, they just pretend to have it and this pretense is short-lived. Once their pockets are full and bulging, they will take to their heels and vanish somewhere overseas, leaving real capitalists to struggle to resuscitate Russia. These real big-time capitalists must form an alliance and reach an understanding with those staying in power, skipping the subject of what comes first, capital or power. Both are equally important. And this does not mean ruling with an iron hand. "Authoritarianism in Russia will bring not order but chaos." This means an inter-class agreement which must be made before a mass revolt destroys everything and everybody. Summing it all up: "Gentlemen, time to grow up!"

In short, Mr. Chernoi wants big capital to have the right to participate in the decision-making process, reasoning that there is a positive program to modernize the state. His concepts are provided here because everything he says fully applies to Ukraine. Yes, a people has the kind of government it deserves. We know it, but only that people can say so, not those who consider themselves the ruling class. Regarding oneself as something thrown up the voters' attitudes is delirium.

The dynamism of Russian politics following the August 17 crisis is perfectly justified by the acuteness of the situation. They are getting ready for elections. But look at how different these preparations are in Russia and Ukraine. While they are struggling to work out an ideology of state building, we are still fighting for sheriff's stars.

Trend 3. The Greens as an indicator of attitudes widespread in Parliament.

The Greens in the Verkhovna Rada have once again attested to their straightforwardness. This time Ihor Kyriushyn, with a young politician's charming directness, told about how his colleague Mr. Khmelnytsky voiced last week what worries many portfolio-seeking Solons. According to him, the Greens are prepared to enter the Cabinet, because "the Premier is now surrounded by people not his own" (Great! In other words "his people" are to be found among the Greens!), subject to the condition, however, that they retain their lawmaker status. Smart, isn't it? That's what they are all worried about. There is obviously something the authors of the Constitution and Law on People's Deputies overlooked. Something which every interested observer will notice almost instantly. But to quote on, "...we want insurance... The only thing an ex-minister or deputy premier can expect is criminal investigation." What is this? An assessment of business performance or the way the country thanks its best sons for their selfless service? Or maybe it is a normal reaction, remembering that one can't be too careful?

By Olha LEN