Ukrainian advocate counts on the defendant’s own resources and support from the West
Warsaw. Ukraine is looking into the possibility of allowing Russia’s Gazprom and Western gas importers to have an interest in managing the transit pipeline, Premier Viktor Yushchenko told The Financial Times, adding that his country is prepared to privatize the transit system and is working on a concept jointly with Russia and Europe. He made this statement when visiting London to discuss investment in Ukraine’s energy sector, in the aftermath of Gazprom’s announcement of a gas pipeline project bypassing Ukraine, reports Interfax Ukraine. The reader should recall that the idea of such trilateral privatization was first voiced by NDSC Secretary Yevhen Marchuk last summer. At the time it met with an hysterical “patriotic” opposition in the pro-premier quarters as did the stated need to get Western investors interested in the Odesa-Brody pipeline and Pivdenny Gas Terminal projects. Presently, this “patriotic” discussion, instead of concrete deeds, shows the following results: whether we like it or not, the Russians will have to allowe to take part in the pipeline’s privatization, just as they will continue to threaten Ukraine with a bypass project, so that Poland remains Ukraine’s only trump card in this political game. And even this possibility has its limits. The West has shown more than once that it is prepared to sacrifice the third party’s interests for the sake of normal relationships with Russia (and for economic reasons), let alone its own Western image.
Poland’s attitude toward the oil bypass remains the same, The Day was told by the Polish Prime Minister’s foreign advisor Jerzy Nowakowski. He added that Poland is always prepared to negotiate matters with the interested parties, but (he stressed) only from the standpoint of defending Ukraine’s interests on the one hand and those of Poland on the other.
Five companies — Gazprom, Gaz de France, SNAM (Italy), and Germany’s Winterschell and Ruhr gaz (with Gazprom holding quite some interest in both German firms) — signed a protocol in Moscow two weeks ago on the construction of a 600 kilometer pipeline to deliver Russian natural gas to southern Europe. The project costs $2 billion and its design capacity will keep EU supplied with 60 billion cu. meters of gas annually. On October 19 Gazprom officially confirmed that the consortium is aimed at building a gas pipeline to the West, bypassing Ukraine and traversing Poland and Slovakia.
Poland responded by a statement last Thursday reading that the new pipeline project must not hinder Ukraine’s interests. Poland is interested in becoming an oil transit country but does not want this to harm any other countries, declared government spokesman Krzysztof Luft. Andrzej Lipko, president of the company Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo, is quoted by the Polish news agency PAP as saying that his company will be interested in the project traversing Poland, provided this conforms to the policy of the Polish government.
Jerzy Nowakowski noted that Poland is strategically interested in diversifying its natural gas supply sources (so as to receive not more than 50% from any one source). He stressed that the 1993 Polish-Russian agreement on gas transportation to Europe rather accurately defines the routes of two parallel pipelines, so planning a line across Belarus and Slovakia is an entirely new issue, not included in the agreement. The Polish government rejects this project because it is detrimental to the interests of Poland’s Ukrainian partner on the one hand; on the other, it is directed against the pipeline project Poland is trying to carry out jointly with Norway. The prime ministers of both countries have already signed an agreement on the delivery of some 10 billion cu. meters of Norwegian gas to southern Europe (e.g., Croatia, Bulgaria, Hungary, etc.). If Gazprom succeeds with its bypass project, the Polish-Norwegian one will be meaningless, Mr. Nowakowski stated. The Polish functionary also told journalists from post-Soviet countries at the Polish-Czech-Slovak Solidarity Foundation that Slovakia would not be likely to support the bypass pipeline idea, either. When asked by The Day, Mr. Nowakowski said “one can read incredible things in the Russian press. They refer to the Slovak Economy Minister, so I talked to him and he said he had never given any such information” (i.e., that Slovakia allegedly has no objections to the Gazprom option — V. P.).
Mr. Nowakowski believes that the problem of transit (not only of gas, but also of oil and electricity) will have top priority for the next couple of years, for both Eastern Europe and the Caucasus with Central Asia. He stressed that Poland understands the Russian stand perfectly well: Gazprom and other energy companies are tools of Russian foreign policy. He further emphasized that Poland and Ukraine are the only partners capable of resisting Russia’s expansion in the region, and that here lies both these countries’ profound political interest.
“We would like Russia to be our important partner, but we stress the word partner time and again,” Mr. Nowakowski declared and complained of what he described as lack of “psychological partnership” on Moscow’s part. “Sometimes I joke that the problems of Polish-Russian relationships are not political but psychological. It is a problem for the Russians to recognize a hen as a domestic fowl. And the fact that Poland is now a member of NATO makes Russia reckon with us.”
When asked by The Day about Poland’s accession to GUUAM in view of the formation of the Eurasian Economic Community and Polish interest in Caspian oil, Mr. Nowakowski replied that Poland is interested in cooperating with GUUAM and in the new oil and gas transportation opportunities (particularly in the Odesa-Brody oil pipeline project). However, he emphasized, the current situation, with Chevron lobbying for the Russian option of Caspian oil transport and BP-Amoco for the Turkish one, could only be changed and the oil current redirected toward Ukraine by an influential third party (primarily the United States).
Very likely, Poland will find it hard to defend Ukraine’s interests when exposed to pressure from yet another direction, the European Union. Polish media note that the setting up of the consortium in Moscow does not mean that the pipeline will actually be built. However, one thing is certain: a new round of intensive talks involving all interested parties is beginning.
Moreover, the agreement signed in Moscow cannot be interpreted as a plan conceived by several private firms, because the pipeline idea received blessings from the one can be sure that the Western European firms will turn to their own governments for help and, of course, to the European Union.” And after a series of fuel strikes there will be no doubt that the Western European politicians will listen to their own citizens rather than worry about the interests of Ukraine. “In such a situation, should Poland [continue to] protect Ukraine’s interests, it might have problems with its EU membership.”
It should be added that Poland is taking its time closing its eastern frontier to Ukrainians. In response to a question from The Day, Mr. Nowakowski said Warsaw is trying to postpone the enforcement of visa procedures on Ukrainian citizens as much as possible, and that such procedures will be instituted directly before Poland joins EU. He also noted that the Polish government has done its best to make entry visas for Ukrainians more accessible and less expensive.
P.S.: The Editors wish to thank the Polish-Czech-Slovak Solidarity Foundation for its assistance in the preparation of this feature.
