What should Ukraine’s strategy be in its relationship with the EU?

The fifth wave of EU enlargement and recent statements by certain Brussels officials to the effect that Ukraine has no EU membership prospects have raised new questions that Kyiv must answer, the major one being, “What should Ukraine’s further relationship with the EU be like?” In a simplified form, the answer can be reduced to two options. First, no one is expecting us in Europe, so it is better to proceed with the Single Economic Space. Second, we must continue knocking on Brussels’ door, and sooner or later it will be opened. Either of these options requires Ukraine to have a clear foreign policy strategy, which was one of the issues discussed at the conference “Ukraine and European Union: Common Interests,” organized by the Institute of Euroatlantic Integration and the Kyiv office of the Konrad Adenauer Fund.

It is worth noting that none of the ambassadors representing EU countries or diplomats from the European Commission office ventured to confirm the statements by Prodi or Verhaugen. On the contrary, most of them stressed that it took the EU fifty years to achieve the current level of unity and prosperity. Hence, the recent enlargement wave should by no means be considered final, but rather a small break. Germany’s Ambassador to Ukraine Dietmar Studemann paid special attention to the “verbal signals” of Brussels (statements to the effect that Ukraine has no EU prospects). In particular, he explained that the EU is currently in a very “difficult situation,” adding, “There are twenty-five of us in the European Union and not fifteen, while the new countries are pinning great hopes on their new member status.” He further emphasized that this situation does not mean that the EU has no definitive policy toward Ukraine, stating that the neighborhood policy initiated by Brussels is “an instrument that will bring Ukraine closer to the EU.” “If you are expecting more fundamental statements, look up the Rome Agreement, where you will read that the door to the EU is not closed,” Ambassador Studemann underlined, adding, “I am prepared to admit that perhaps the EU has not done enough, but Ukraine also has certain flaws. So, let us not accuse each other.” The ambassador called the SES agreement ratified by Ukraine one of Kyiv’s “ambiguities.” “If you want to move toward the European Union, do not send ambiguous signals,” he said. One of the conference participants, Oleksandr M AYBORODA , Ph.D. in history and chairman of the Ethnic Politics Research Department at the Institute of Political and Ethnic- National Studies of the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences, discussed the short- and long-term prospects of Ukraine’s relationship with the EU in the following interview with The Day.

“The prospects of our cooperation may be considered within the context of bilateral relations only. In this case, everything will depend less on Ukraine and more on the EU, since to participate in bilateral relations Ukraine does not have to fulfill the Copenhagen Criteria, join the WTO, and secure market economy status. In this case, mutual benefit will be the main consideration. Without a doubt, cooperation with the EU is more advantageous to Ukraine than the other way around. For us, this relationship will be of a mostly economic nature and of a strategic nature for the EU. This could be the main signal for Ukraine. If the EU chooses to deepen its cooperation with Kyiv, this will mean that Brussels wants to see Ukraine as a developed country, and therefore will help us with its contacts and support. Meanwhile, if the EU does not choose to develop bilateral relations, this would signal a lack of strategic prospects [for Ukraine]. As for strategy, this depends more on Ukraine. I generally agree with those who say that for us the main thing is not joining the EU but achieving European living standards. Consider, for example, Switzerland and Norway. One should also bear in mind that to be an EU member a country must produce a great number of competitive goods. To this end, Ukraine should have, first, significant investments and, second, new technologies. As for investments, there are two ways: either return the money taken out of the country or attract investors. I have mentioned attracting investment before — this is exactly what will reflect EU policy. Technology is a different matter. It should be absolutely clear that no economic space will help us in this case. Russia itself has underdeveloped technological capacities. Of course, the core technologies are in the West. In this case, everything is up to us and whether we are able to create a favorable climate. The relationship strategy will change depending on the situation. Understandably, the issue now is not preparing for membership, but gradually developing and preparing one stage at a time. But, after all, no special strategy is needed to join the EU. This is chiefly a matter of domestic development — whether Ukraine can meet the relevant requirements or not.”