“The Kremlin began to look for a way out of the trap”

In early September the Western media began to show evidence of the presence of Russian troops in Syria. The US is also saying that Russia is sending “little green men” and equipment to the Middle East. Pentagon spokesman Jeff Davis said the other day that recently a continuous delivery of the personnel and equipment to a Russian air force base near the Syrian city of Latakia took place. According to Davis, the Russians are upgrading the place where they are to be stationed. Incidentally, Latakia is one of the few cities still under control of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad.

The Pentagon also claims that a satellite has spotted 200 marines and 12 armored personnel carriers. Journalists have also got hold of some space photos. A number of major American and British publications carry the pictures of a Russian base in Syria. The US journal Foreign Policy also adds some older photos that show no repairs or construction. “Still, there has always been a question about how extensive Russia’s support for the Syrian regime has been in the past four years. Are those even Russians inside the Moscow-supplied combat vehicles? Open-source analysts have been quite enterprising in suggesting the answer is yes, hearing snippets of Russian in between bursts from the vehicle’s gun,” the publication says.

Meanwhile, Moscow does not deny the presence of its military in Syria. The Russians do not hide this, posting Syria photos in social networking sites on a mass scale. Facebook even jokes about a Russian soldier: “Mum, don’t worry. I’m not in Donetsk, I’m in Damascus.”

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov does not deny the presence of Russian servicemen in Syria, either. “They have been there for many years. Their presence is linked to the supplies of weapons to the Syrian army which shoulders the main burden in resisting terrorism in the shape of IS and other extremist groupings,” Interfax quotes Lavrov as saying.

In addition, Russia is also offering assistance to the West, particularly the US, in fighting against Islamic State. Reuters quotes US Secretary of State John Kerry as saying: “The Russians proposed… that we have a military-to-military conversation… in order to discuss the issue of precisely what will be done to deconflict with respect to any potential risks that might be run.” At the same time, he added that the US is still thinking over this proposal because negotiations with Moscow could help avoid further misunderstandings.

If the West accepts Moscow’s help in fighting the Islamists, Russia will obviously demand a “payment.” According to Lilia SHEVTSOVA, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, many experts view Putin’s proposal to the West about forming an international coalition “to oppose extremism” as a proposal of the deal “Syria in exchange for Ukraine.”

“I think the Kremlin’s intentions are even more ambitious, and Ukraine is only one of the elements of Putin’s multi-move combination. The Kremlin’s goal is to come out of isolation and regain the role of great power, a world club member. A great power cannot be in isolation or under sanctions. Why is the Kremlin so eager to regain the status of a great power? Because otherwise the model of autocracy, now being supported by way of turning domestic challenges into international ones, will tumble down,” Shevtsova says.

In her opinion, the Kremlin is trying to get rid of sanctions “which have become a serious factor of a deepening economic crisis in Russia.” “This is why the Kremlin has put forward the proposal of an agreement (Putin expressed this idea at the CSTO summit in Dushanbe on September 15). Russia’s participation in an international coalition envisions, of course, the presence of Ukraine in the sphere of Russian influence. But in what form? Apparently, the Kremlin itself has not yet taken a final stand in this matter. The idea will be put forward again at the UN General Assembly session in New York. Putin has floated a trial balloon now and is waiting for the West’s response. And what about the West? It has been taken aback to some extent,” the political scientist says.

Shevtsova also believes that Washington-Moscow contacts over Syria are “inevitable” and that they have in fact existed for a long time “in various forms”    – not only as contacts between Kerry and Lavrov. “Will Obama accept the agreement in the form the Kremlin has proposed? Rather unlikely. But the search for a dialog with Moscow on the terms more acceptable for the US will undoubtedly continue. Some voices are already calling for ‘taking into account Moscow’s position.’ One of the first to say so is the foreign minister of Austria – he is always ready to follow the line of accommodation. In other words, the Kremlin began to desperately look for a way out of the trap into which it drove itself on its own. And, as usual, the West, being unable to put up any proposals for a breakthrough, has to react to the Kremlin’s initiatives. It is a pity. The problems of leadership, vector, unity, and protection of values remain challenges for liberal democracies, to which they are unprepared to respond adequately,” Shevtsova concluded.

The Day also requested Viacheslav SHVED, head of the Department of Asian and African History at the Institute of Worldwide History (National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine), to comment on the buildup of Russian troops in Syria.

“The goals Russia is setting are of a much longer range than the ones Putin, Lavrov, and other Russian top officials are talking about. The Russian leadership believes that there are very favorable conditions now for a rapid restoration of the former Soviet Union’s grandeur and clout.

“To regain this clout is a fixed idea for the Russians. And, taking into account the present-day situation in the Middle East, Putin’s main goal is to make a contribution to the aggravation of chaos, enmity, and hatred between the Sunnites and the Shiites, Islamists and secular figures, the opposition and the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Russia also hopes to widen the split between the main geopolitical players in the Middle East – both external and internal.”

“PUTIN IS TRYING TO PROLONG THE EXISTENCE OF HIS REGIME”

“Russia wants to take advantage of this chaos and position itself as perhaps the only savior of the Mid-Eastern region and the entire world, claiming that only Moscow can spearhead the normalization of this situation and save humankind from the threat of Islamic State, terrorism, and the migration wane that has swept over Europe.

“Putin believes that the ante is being upped, and he expects the West, in reply, to normalize relations with and lift sanctions off Russia. Besides, Russia wants the world to watch silently what the Russians will be dong in eastern Ukraine. Above all, the West must tacitly concede that Russia has annexed Crimea ‘forever,’ as it thinks. The ultimate goal is that Moscow should be readmitted to the club of civilized states and G8.

“Putin is trying in this way to prolong the existence of his regime and prove that Russia is strong, and one must not only respect, but also be afraid of it and give in to all of its whims in the Middle East and worldwide, particularly in Ukraine. Putin never stops raving that the West will dump Ukraine in exchange for Russian contribution to fighting against Islamic State and terrorism in the Middle East.”

“THE KREMLIN IS DOING ITS BEST NOT TO ALLOW THE PRESIDENT OF SYRIA TO BE STRIPPED OF POWER”

“On the other hand, the UN General Assembly session is coming up. Putin has already decided to visit it. He looks forward to meeting Barack Obama, even though the US president’s administration is still hesitating to say whether this meeting will take place. Putin wants to demonstrate from the UN rostrum that, by force of its potential, Russia is the No.1 figure, which can find allies in the Middle East and worldwide and spearhead the fight against IS. But, at the same time, Moscow says that the Bashar al-Assad regime should be in the center of this coalition because Putin thinks that only al-Assad is capable of really fighting in this region against Islamic State. In other words, this means that preservation of al-Assad’s regime is the price for Russia’s involvement in the war against IS.

“The Kremlin is doing its best not to allow the president of Syria to be stripped of power. Various options are in the offing. Putin’s analysts have arrived at the conclusion that al-Assad will fail to hold back the entire Syria and, under the current circumstances, that country is doomed to a split. So, the deployment of Russian servicemen is an attempt to establish a stronghold in Syria around the cities Latakia and Tartus. There is a hectic construction of a network of defense ramparts and a ‘prohibited area,’ in which Russian military bases are being set up and to which Russian regular troops are being airlifted. It is the so-called Alavistan. In all probability, Bashar al-Assad will only manage to retain this part of Syria.

“Playing down to Arab public opinion, Putin seems to be saying: [Egypt’s ex-president] Mubarak was the US’s closest ally, but Obama in fact ‘ditched’ him at the outset of the Arab Spring. And Putin is desperately fighting for his ally al-Assad, so the Arabs should draw a conclusion about who is a true friend of them and will be really defending their interests.”

“RUSSIA MUST HEED THE VOICE OF THE SYRIAN PEOPLE”

“The deployment of Russian troops is a preemptive action. The aim is to retain at least this part of the Syrian territory and turn it into a fortress, which could break the waves of Islamic State and other anti-Assad forces (the Syrian opposition and the US-led international coalition). This will make it possible to switch to a lengthy bargain and decide what will be next.

“Obama and NATO representatives have said that, by doing so, Putin is making a major mistake. This kind of Russian actions are only aggravating the situation and putting a true solution of the Syrian problem on hold.

“Russia must heed the voice of the Syrian people and help strip Bashar al-Assad of power – it is the main prerequisite for normalization of the situation in Syria. At the same time, this will also be a decisive step towards the victory over Islamic State. The very existence of al-Assad’s regime laid all the groundwork for the emergence of such a monster as Islamic State. As long as al-Assad remains in power, there will be Islamic State and waves of uncontrolled migration.”