An “October surprise” from the FBI director

It seems that no one will be able to confidently name the future US president until the last day, namely the election day of November 8. Just recently, Democratic candidate and former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held a strong lead in the polls, reaching as high as 10 percentage points. Moreover, she won all three debates with the Republican candidate, New York tycoon Donald Trump. However, the situation changed dramatically on October 28 after Director of the FBI James Comey reported discovery of thousands of letters potentially relevant to the investigation into Clinton’s use of a private mail server during her tenure as secretary of state.

The media called the statement of the FBI director who, incidentally, is a Republican, an “October surprise.” And now, after this surprise, the gap between Clinton and Trump has narrowed, according to some estimates, to two percentage points in her favor, while some polls even give the Republican a one percentage point advantage.

On November 3, The Day asked American experts to comment on the latest turn of events in the campaign after the FBI director’s statement, to tell us how important the Russian factor is in this race, and to predict who ultimately has a better chance of winning it.

“IT IS NOT ALTOGETHER CLEAR THAT TRUMP WOULD MAKE THINGS EASIER FOR RUSSIA”

Aubrey JEWETT, professor of the Department of Political Science, University of Central Florida:

“This election is unique in modern American politics in that both major party candidates are rated unfavorable by a strong majority of Americans. Thus there are a lot of Americans who have not yet settled on who they should vote for. Some voters are looking at policy, some are looking at leadership skills, some are looking at experience, some are looking at temperament, and some are just trying to decide who is the least objectionable. Thus when the FBI Director announced to Congress that he was reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails, it has caused a small percentage of those undecided voters (3-6 percent) to favor Trump because they see this announcement as confirmation that Hillary Clinton is unfit to serve as president. The FBI Director’s announcement had a big political impact whether or not he intended it to. Typically the FBI would not announce its investigation so close to an election, on the other hand, if he had not informed congress after he told them the investigation was closed, he would have come under fire for making a political decision to keep it secret until after the election. And there is still the potential that Hillary Clinton could be indicted for keeping her private email server and using it for state department business including classified information.

“Russia may be behind some of the email hacking that has been occurring in this election. It seems that Russia does not want Hillary Clinton to win and would prefer Donald Trump. Of course this is just speculation as we do not have entirely clear or firm evidence that Russia is actually trying to tamper with the election. And it is not altogether clear that Trump would make things easier for Russia. In fact he has complimented Putin and criticized Obama and Clinton largely for Putin’s ability to get the better of them when it comes to international affairs. Thus if Trump were elected, presumably he would seek to improve the US position when it comes to dealing with Russia.”

“TRUMP COULD STILL WIN THE ELECTION DESPITE NOT CLEARLY WINING ANY OF THE THREE DEBATES”

“Donald Trump could still win the election despite not clearly wining any of the three debates. Debates are helpful for voters to decide about candidates, but they are not the only way that Americans decide who to vote for. There is so much other information coming at voters in paid advertisements and news coverage that the debates may not matter too much to most voters. While Trump did not clearly win any of the debates, his performance in the 2nd and 3rd debates showed he was at least minimally capable.

“If the election were held today, I think that Hillary would probably win the Electoral College vote by a small margin and become the next president. However since there are still a few more days to go, and Trump seems to be surging in the national polls and in the battleground states, he could still come out on top on Election Day. Thus while Hillary still has a small lead, I think the race is too close to call. Over the last few days the candidates will continue to hold rallies in the biggest battleground states (they have been coming to my state of Florida constantly for the past few weeks and are scheduled to keep coming back through Tuesday). Both candidates will continue to run their advertisements on television, radio and the internet. And both campaigns will be reaching out to voters with direct mail, by phone, and even knocking on doors in an effort to increase turnout for their supporters. Ultimately the race may be decided by outside forces that the campaigns can do little about. Just as the announcement by the FBI director about reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails changed the race as an ‘October Surprise,’ we may get one final ‘November Surprise’ that helps or hurts one of the two candidates.”

“CLINTON IS STILL THE LIKELY WINNER, BUT THE MARGIN WILL BE CLOSER THAN MANY WOULD EXPECT”

Lincoln MITCHELL, political scientist, former professor of the Columbia University, author of the book The Democracy Promotion Paradox:

“If I had a simple answer to this question, I would tell you. Comey’s letter to Congress was not a new revelation, but simply dragged an old scandal back into the public eye. It was not so much the new revelations in the letter, because there were none, but more of a reminder of the persistent scandal and ethically questionable behavior that have been part of the Clinton’s image since the early 1990s. However, that alone was not enough to change the election. Another major factor in the race getting closer is that Trump has had a few days in a row where he has avoided saying something damaging to himself and in which no new story has broken that is bad for him.

“With regards to the FBI Director’s announcement, it is clear to me that Comey has politicized the FBI in a way that we have not seen since J. Edgar Hoover was alive. This is very troubling.”

“THE PRIMARY INTENT OF RUSSIA’S IMPACT HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE FAULTS OF THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SYSTEM”

“Clinton is not going to be indicted or imprisoned because of the emails, but the base voters of the GOP like hearing it, so Trump keeps saying it. Again, it is not clear to me why this story has become more important than Trump’s manifest unreadiness for the presidency. American presidential elections are, of course, hugely important political events, but they are also stories that take on a life of their own. In this election, the email story has been a way for many voters to focus their often irrational hatred for Clinton. Additionally, the new media environment lends itself to scandals and breaking news rather than in depth looks at policy differences. This has been true for decades, but is even more the case now.

“The primary intent of Russia’s impact has been to show the faults of the American political system, like for example, our vulnerability to hacking, to the rest of the world. While Donald Trump is wittingly or not, a Russian stooge, I do not fully credit Moscow with his rise. If he wins it will be because of the doings of the American people not Russia.

“Yes, it is possible for a candidate who lost three debates in a row to win election, but it remains unlikely. Trump is lucky there are no more debates and that the debates wrapped up with a few weeks remaining in the campaign.

“Clinton is still the likely winner, but the margin will be closer than many would expect. Interested people in Ukraine and elsewhere who are watching returns should begin by paying attention to three eastern states: Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. If Clinton wins one or more of those states, she will win the election with relative ease. If Trump wins all three, attention will turn to Iowa, Missouri, and Nevada. My projection is Clinton gets 318 electoral votes and Trump gets 220. As for the popular vote, I project Clinton 50 percent, Trump 44 percent with the remaining 6 percent divided among minor candidates.

“The Clinton campaign has a better GOTV operation and has the ability to deploy key surrogates. Look for Bill Clinton, Michelle Obama, and President Obama to spend a lot of time in African American areas of Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. They will be doing that to make sure that key Democratic vote turns out. Trump will frantically travel across the country to keep his voters enthused, but does not have as strong a ground game.”

Oleksandr MOTSYK, former Ambassador of Ukraine to the US, Kyiv:

REUTERS photo

Of course, the election to be held today, on November 8, is extraordinarily important for America as well as for the entire world and Ukraine because we are at war which was imposed on us by our neighbor. Now is a crucial period for our country when we are doing a lot to break the curse that has afflicted us for the past 20 years and to finally move onto the direct path of building a prosperous democratic European country.

 “If you compare this campaign and the previous one, when Barack Obama and Mitt Romney contested the US presidency, the fight is tougher and more emotional now.

 “As for the low level of public trust in both candidates, I believe that American voters’ skepticism regarding the candidates may well be caused by unrealistically high expectations regarding the internal progress and American foreign policy. But I would not say that we have some kind of a unique situation here. I can recall many skeptics during previous campaigns as well. However, the vast majority of American voters see every election as an opportunity to find new capabilities in new candidates who then become presidents.

 “The Ukrainian community of the US has always been active in the electoral process. It is very much involved, and the Ukrainian Americans, like other American ethnic groups, undoubtedly affect the results to some extent. Therefore, their votes count.