Question of <I>The Day</I>

Oleksandr DERHACHOV, political scientist:

The on-going formation of election blocs has clarified the multiparty political landscape. The Left is represented primarily by the Communists. Next come the Social Democrats (united). If they ever join in any kind of bloc, it will be only a formal marriage since they are a self-sufficient force. Next comes the Center, a bloc formerly called TUNDRA, a bunch of pro- presidential and very specific parties that seem to represent the interests of certain businesses. Add to this the Yushchenko bloc. These are the principal contestants taken seriously by the Presidential Administration. And there are some secondary runners that give a certain coloring to the whole campaign. Here I have in mind the Batkivshchyna Party and the bloc that coalesces around it, as well as Oleksandr Moroz’s Socialists. Their chances are not very clear but quite real. There are also several dark horses, and the Yednist bloc led by Omelchenko is one of them. Yabluko and New Generation (given continued funding for it) will face an uphill task. Generally speaking, there are other candidates. In my view, the potential of runners at the start of the election campaign is reflected by their existing popularity and chances to raise it using information and administrative resources. Various polls give the Communists 20%, while Yushchenko’s 20% seems very hazy. The SDPU(o) and TUNDRA have between 4 and 8 percent, and Moroz and Tymoshenko between 3 and 6 percent. The information resource is shared by SDPU(o) and the Centrists. So far, it has been used sparingly by both forces as the election campaign has not begun. With regard to the administrative resource, Yuliya Tymoshenko’s bloc, like the SDPU(o) and Centrists, are clear favorites. Yushchenko is also likely to show a big war chest.

The Communists and the Yushchenko bloc present clear political agendas, which already have followers and this might enhance their chances on election day. Batkivshchyna and Moroz could score points on their rejection of the general conformity dominating the Ukrainian political scene. However, the final tally might be affected by predicted falsifications and foul play technologies which the executive can resort to kick some riders out of the saddle. In this respect, TUNDRA’s position is safest as, being closest to the administrative resource, TUNDRA will certainly get the lion’s share. At the regional level, the United Social Democrats (SDPU{o}) stands equally well in terms of the administrative resource. While Yushchenko’s maneuvers and double-talk indicate his intentions to get a blank check from those in power and maybe gain access to the administrative resource. In general, the scene is very complex, especially in view of the delayed start of the election campaign that gives two more months for preliminary maneuvers.

Iryna BEKESHKINA, senior research associate in the Institute of Sociology of the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences and expert with the Democratic Initiatives Foundation:

There are parties with stable electoral potential, like the Communists who could even go on vacation during the campaign, because they will receive their votes anyway. In my view, the more seldom they turn up on television, the better off they will be. Both Rukhs also show a stable electorate, regardless of whether they sign on to (Yushchenko’s) Our Ukraine or go it alone, with about 8% of Ukrainians ready to support both Rukhs. The Social Democrats (united) also have a stable electorate potential allowing them to get into Verkhovna Rada, but how much over the required 4% support they will get will depend on how well they will run their campaigns. They have large available organizational and information resources for successful campaigning. Concerning For a United Ukraine, any forecasts are difficult to make as many of its member parties have no supporters, although some parties, of course, have their voters. Our latest polls indicate 9% support for the For a United Ukraine, but this is virtually the supporters of the NDP, Labor Ukraine, and the Party of the Regions in the Donetsk oblast. This oblast shows a considerable reserve of voters, up to 40%, since the maximum support which can be scored by the Communists is known. With mass media backing and charismatic local leaders, parties can score quite well there. The Green Party also enjoys stable popularity. If no alternative green party joins the election race, the Greens will have enough popular support to make it to Verkhovna Rada. The National Salvation Forum represents the most radically opposed protest voters, and this could also be enough for it to get into parliament. The SDPU(o) is a clear favorite and it can increase its representation in the legislature in this election because many more Ukrainians support Social Democracy as a political idea than are ready to vote for the SDPU(o). For a United Ukraine has potential, especially in eastern Ukraine.

Mykhailo POHREBYNSKY, political scientist, Director of the Kyiv Center for Political Research and Conflict Studies:

There are five or six parties whose chances of being represented in parliament can be viewed as good. The Communists and the SDPU(o) are sure to clear the 4% hurdle, with the Yushchenko’s bloc and For United Ukraine in the same group. There are no doubts that these forces will be represented in Verkhovna Rada. Based on current polls, the Greens can also clear the hurdle. Batkivshchyna, Moroz’s bloc, and Vitrenko’s bloc also have good chances to make it to the parliament. With differing election campaign models, the parties are using differing resources. The Communists, for example, are relying to an insignificant extent on information and financial resources, giving preference to door-to-door tactics. Since their campaign workers do this for almost nothing, for the Communists campaigning is inexpensive and does not require much resources. On the other hand, the Communists can boast quite a good organizational resource. Due to its access to mighty organizational, financial, and information resources, the SDPU(o) is the clear leader. As for the administrative resource, it is hard to say which of the political parties and blocs will win the sympathies of local authorities. The administrative resource will be predominantly used in the winner-take-all electoral districts. It would be a safe bet to say that the Communists and the Socialists will have no access to this resource. As for other political parties, the use by them of this resource will be contingent on many factors.