Tillerson as businessman vs. Tillerson as diplomat

The hearings of Rex Tillerson, ex-CEO of an oil giant ExxonMobil, nominated by Donald Trump as the secretary of state to the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs, have created ambiguous impression. On the one hand, the 64-year-old businessman, who is considered a “friend of the Kremlin” and is known as the person who received the Order of Friendship from Russian President Vladimir Putin, has promised to be tough on Moscow. In particular, he condemned the annexation of Crimea and said that Russia is a “threat” to the United States, calling for an “honest and open” dialog with Moscow.

On the other hand, he refused to call Vladimir Putin war criminal for Russia’s atrocities in Syria and did not give a clear answer on whether the US would maintain the sanctions against Russia in the future. However, he called the sanctions, which were imposed by Obama Administration, “a powerful deterrent factor.”

The hearings lasted all day, and the issue of Tillerson’s candidacy remains open. The Senate Committee is composed of 11 Republicans and 10 Democrats. It is clear that the Democrats are against the candidacy of the ExxonMobil CEO; namely Bob Menendez said at the hearing: “Diplomacy is not the same as deal making.” Provided that senators McCain and Rubio do not support Trump’s choice, it is unlikely that the Senate, where the Republicans control 52 seats, is going to approve the nominee.

“TILLERSON MADE CLEAR THAT HE HAS A REALISTIC UNDERSTANDING OF THE DANGERS POSED BY THE REVISIONIST POLICIES OF PUTIN”

John HERBST, Director, Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council, former US ambassador to Ukraine, Washington, D.C.:

“At his confirmation hearings, Rex Tillerson went a long way towards assuaging skeptics who feared that his past relationship with Russian leaders might translate into a naive and weak approach toward the Kremlin. This was apparent from the start with his confirmation statement that was released the evening before his testimony. He said that we needed to be ‘clear-eyed’ in our relations with Moscow and that it poses a danger, which our Allies rightly fear. He scored the Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and seizure of Crimea. While interested in cooperation with Russia where our interests intersect, he noted that where they do not, ‘we should be steadfast in defending the interests of America and her allies’ and ‘Russia must be held to account for its actions.’

“While the Secretary-designate’s initial statement was strong, it was not, understandably, very specific. But he faced sharp questionings from many Senators concerned about his views on Russia and Ukraine. His responses were strong and at times specific. Regarding Ukraine, he said that the Western response to Moscow’s seizure of Crimea was weak and encouraged it to launch a military operation in Ukraine’s east. When asked what the US should have done in response to Russian aggression, he said it should have encouraged Kyiv to deploy all its military assets to the east and should have provided Ukraine with defensive weapons and timely intelligence. Of course, Mr. Tillerson’s answer was not about what the US should do now, but it does open the possibility that the Trump Administration may provide more robust support to Ukraine in fighting Kremlin aggression than its timid predecessor.

“On sanctions, the Secretary-designate was ambivalent. On the one hand he called sanctions a ‘powerful and important tool’ to deter negative behavior. But he also stated, reflecting perhaps a businessman’s parochial concerns, that they, ‘by their design, are going to harm American businesses.’ His bottom line was that for now the status quo on sanctions should remain – until he learns more.

“Under questioning, Tillerson also said that he supported the Magnitsky Act, which sanctions individual Russians for activities that violate human rights and democratic norms and that he would readily implement the Global Magnitsky Act. Understandably, he evaded Senator Rubio’s efforts to have him call President Putin a ‘war criminal.’

“Rex Tillerson made clear today that he has a realistic understanding of the dangers posed by the revisionist policies of President Putin and that he is an advocate for a strong NATO and robust American leadership. Presumably, the positions that he took today have the clearance of the President-elect; and should provide major clues to the policies of the incoming Administration. That would be a good thing. But given the idiosyncrasies of the new team, this cannot be taken for granted.”