On pro-Russian attitudes in Latvia

Social networking sites have been full of reports lately on the growing pro-Russian attitudes in Latvia. Russian speech in fact dominates in Riga, as do Russian or Russian-language TV channels in the Latvian media space. Does Russian propaganda pose a threat to the country’s independence? This is the first question The Day asked in an interview with Zaneta OZOLINA, political scientist and professor at the Latvian University of Riga.

“THERE IS A CERTAIN BACKGROUND FOR A SOCIAL CONFLICT”

“I think we must distinguish between Russian and pro-Russian sentiments. Riga has always traditionally been a multiethnic city. It has always had a large percentage of Russians. There are also some cities in Latvia, such as Daugavpils, where Russians constitute a majority. This is not a problem. Nor is it a problem to have a large number of Russian channels. For we are living in an open world, where digital opportunities are boundless, and you can watch any TV channel if not on television then on the Internet.

“The problem is different. In connection with the latest events in Ukraine, we can see that the broadcasting of Russian TV channels is in total contravention of European values. These channels are taking a very aggressive attitude to Ukraine and thus create a negative background in Latvia. And, as far as information and hybrid war is concerned, Russia increasingly tends to use the mass media to manipulate people’s awareness. If no democratic values are instilled in an individual, he or she is very easy to manipulate.”

So, you see no danger of growing pro-Russian sentiments?

“It depends on the way you look at it. On a down-to-earth level, people are in principle calm and peaceful, for they relish living in the European Union. But there are a certain number of people who ‘sit on the fence’ and who are easy to be manipulated. They can be used to cause disturbances on the street, and so on. Of course, there is a certain background for a social conflict.”

Incidentally, during the Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga, a small group of 20-30 people picketed the building with slogans in Russian and English: “The Eastern Partnership is a fuse for war.” Can you say what forces are standing behind this anti-European action?

“Since the 1990s, we have always had a few organizations that say quite openly that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a tragic mistake. So, when some problems arise, they organize all kinds of demonstrations and protests. I must say the positive side of the matter is that the number of the people who come out on the streets is not growing and is about 20-30. They are the same people, and everybody knows them. It is all too clear what political goals they pursue, but this does not turn into mass-scale movements.”

“PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP HAS GROWN AFTER THE EVENTS IN UKRAINE”

Are there any political forces in parliament, which want to see Latvia back in the USSR?

“It is a very interesting question because we have not a single political party which would call openly for reunification with Russia or restoration of the Soviet Union. Out of all the political forces represented in parliament, only one big party, Harmony, is speaking not so much about reunification with Russia as about the normalization of relations with that country. This party has an agreement with United Russia, and it considers this a major bonus which can be used as leverage in a dialog with Russia. Some members of this party are taking a more pro-Russian approach and are rather critical of what is going on in eastern Ukraine – they are taking quite a pro-Russian stand, but they are not doing this openly. The other part of this political force positions itself as a more pro-European political party and says that the EU is taking a common position and we are heeding it, but, at the same time, we should be more pragmatic, think of our business, and protect our entrepreneurs. They seem to be balancing between the two positions and do not want to jump, at one go, on Putin’s bandwagon.”

What is the state doing to make people know about the events in Ukraine, especially taking into account that Russia is disseminating sheer propaganda and false information?

“There are two media spaces in Latvia. Firstly, it is Latvian, including Russian-speaking, TV channels which cover the Ukrainian events. It is clear from their broadcasts what is going on, and no questions arise. All who live in Latvia – grandmothers, grandfathers, etc. – do not need to be told twice about what is occurring. Our history has taught us to look properly at the things that happen again. Secondly, it is Russian broadcasting. And, of course, those who watch Russian channels have an idea of Ukrainian events that fits in with the official Russian attitude.”

What can you say about the Latvian grassroots’ attitude to NATO and EU membership?

“Public support for NATO and EU membership has grown after the events in Ukraine. Nobody any longer doubts the usefulness of these institutions. In the case of the EU, it has always been a proven fact. When we fell into a major financial crisis in 2008, the European Commission offered us substantial financial aid. The EC has been always involved in this process and helped us struggle out of this quagmire.”

“IT IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR UKRAINE ITSELF TO TELL THE WORLD ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON HERE”

The evening before yesterday [the interview was recorded on May 29. – Author] US Vice-President Joe Biden delivered a keynote speech on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and its consequences for European security on the eve of the G7 Summit in Germany. He said, among other things, that the US was “looking for Putin to act rationally” in implementing the Minsk agreements. And what do you think about Putin’s rationality, and what is really to be done to make Russia stop backing separatists and return the illegally occupied Crimea?

“I think this will be a very long process. And it is hardly worthwhile to hope that the Minsk agreements will be implemented in the near future. It still takes a long way to go. As a politician, Biden should include a share of optimism in his speeches – otherwise he will be an analyst, not a politician. I think Russia expects the West to become so much weary that it will opt for concessions. And it will obviously play into the hands of a rational Putin when everybody gets tired of and stops talking about the Ukraine war. Therefore, I think we will remain for a long time in a situation of constant uncertainty, provocations, and exchange of opinions.

“For this reason, it is important for Ukraine itself to tell the world, on the official and unofficial level, about what is going on here. Unfortunately, for some reason, the Ukrainians have been very lazy so far to do this. For example, there was no Ukrainian ambassador in Riga for more than eight months, although it was common knowledge that Latvia was holding the EU presidency. Or take special parliamentary debates after the Riga Summit on what is to be done further. Can you imagine that there were no Ukrainian MPs or other governmental representatives around one of the tables with the flags of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine? I frequently visit all kinds of ‘think tank’ conferences and must say that Ukrainian representatives are very often absent there – and not because they are not invited there. The result is that others speak for them. Of course, you are lucky if there are such people as Joe Biden, James Sherr, or, for example, I at these conferences. We will defend Ukraine’s position. But, at the same time, there may be representatives of not so friendly organizations there, which will be speaking for Ukraine. It is very important to get Ukraine communicated abroad.”

As for communications, Stephan de Spiegeleire, a senior scientist at the Hague-based Center for Strategic Studies, told me that his country allocates a mere 0.5 percent of GDP for defense because he thinks the government does not explain to people the importance of security. And what is the situation in your country, as far as explanation of the necessity to spend money on defense is concerned?

“We are increasing defense expenditures now. I will remind you that our budget was halved due to the crisis. This year we passed a law that allows spending 2 percent of GDP on defense again. The public is taking a positive view of this. It is clear to us why this is being done. And the communication is quite good because some of our ministries have advisory bodies and some agencies, such as the ministry of defense, have a partner, Latvian Transatlantic Organization, which helps organize public debates. As a result, Latvia’s tradition of drawing the public into debate has received a major boost in the past few years.”