Winning the Dutch referendum

The Dutch referendum on the Association Agreement with Ukraine, slated on April 6, has become for our country the second biggest challenge after Russia’s aggression. This plebiscite is a challenge for the EU as well, as the Netherlands turned out to be the only country not to have ratified the Association Agreement, which came in force on January 1 this year. Moreover, Herman van Rompuy, former President of the European Council, said in an interview to a Dutch newspaper (www.trouw.nl) that a “no” at the referendum would become a disgrace for the Netherlands’ government. How does the Land of Tulips see the significance of this plebiscite? Read The Day’s interview with Tony van der Togt, senior research fellow at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael.

“We have some experience with another referendum which we had in 2005 on the European Constitution which was rejected by the Dutch electorate, and then, in the campaign, there were arguments like ‘if we would not accept this constitution it will be a major crisis.’ It did not really impress people, so now, I think they are trying to play it down and not to paint this kind of black picture that we would have a huge crisis in Europe if we would vote ‘No.’ So, that’s the way the Dutch government is somewhere downplaying it, not campaigning very actively themselves, although individual ministers go out and explain about the importance of the Association Agreement. But they want to do this because the background of this referendum is very much something… it comes from anti-EU populist parties, and it is much about anti-Europe, maybe sometimes, for some persons, anti-government, than it is about Ukraine. Only now the debate is about the treaty, about Ukraine, before it was just about anti-European feelings. And the Association Agreement with Ukraine for a lot of populists and anti-EU parties in the Netherlands, this looks like, well, they say: ‘Ah, this is the first step to membership, we don’t want any new EU members, we don’t want the EU to be too large, it will cause a lot of problems internally, because countries like Ukraine are not ready, they are very corrupt, it’s not going to change.’ There are people who are active, let’s say, in the ‘Yes’ camp, want this treaty with Ukraine, and there are a lot of parties in the Netherlands who are very much in favor of this treaty. Most of the parties, they already voted in parliament, well, more than 70 percent was in favor, and just a few parties, like extreme right PVV, the Socialist Party, this is more like extreme left, and the Party for the Animal Rights – were against it in both houses of parliament. But what the government has to do if this turns out to be a ‘No,’ it is a consultative referendum, so they can neglect it, if they want, if they have the political guts to do so. But only if the turnout is above 30 percent, the referendum is valid, and then they will have to resubmit the treaty for approval to parliament once again. So, parliament already approved it, but they cannot really ratify now because of this referendum, so they will have to resubmit it to parliament, and then two things can happen, I mean, political parties in parliament can say: well, we have heard the debate, it was very interesting, but we are not convinced, and we stick to our opinion, we will guess once again. The government will have only to resubmit it to parliament, and then parliament will have to decide, both houses of parliament. So, it is, I mean, even the people in the ‘No’ vote… the polls are at the moment, like, the turnout, probably, just above 30 percent, and then an advantage of the ‘No’ vote maybe like 60-40. But it can still change. Then a lot will depend on election day, whether even the people who signed up to have this referendum will be motivated enough to go out and vote. The same is for the ‘Yes’ vote. I mean, a lot of people are much in favor of the treaty with Ukraine, but at the same time, they don’t like this type of referendum, they may not be motivated to go out to the polling booth and actually vote. The ‘Yes’ has a problem with getting their supporters out to vote and not just stay at home.”

Aren’t Euro-skeptical parties paid with Russian money to secure a negative result at this consultative referendum? It is no secret that Russia is interested in obstructing Ukraine’s path to Europe.

“Well, that could be, I mean, it suits very well the Russian agenda, but until now, I have seen no proof of that, and just the fact that people in some of this parties and movements use the same arguments as in Russian propaganda doesn’t prove that they’re paid by the Russians. Well, most well-known is direct financing for Front National in France, and they have been even also financing some NGOs, environmental NGOs in, for example, Romania and Bulgaria, which were against fracking. It was that would make them more independent in energy sphere from Russia, and Russia doesn’t like that, so it was clearly instigated from abroad. So, it could well be, but until now, we have not found any proof in the Netherlands that individuals, or parties, or movements are paid for by Russia.

“It’s also not really necessary, because there are some people who anyhow use the same arguments whether they are fed by Russia or not. They simply have the same type of ideas, especially in the left-wing Socialist Party, I mean, they have this kind of argument that ‘No, we should not have this Association Agreement, because it’s a first step to not only EU membership, but eventually also to NATO membership, and Putin won’t like that, and it will only lead to a bigger conflict or even war.’ That’s their type of reasoning, but that’s the type of reasoning they always had, I think, so no big surprise. Maybe they are paid for by Russians, maybe not, at the moment, I don’t know.”

What do you think about Junker’s remarks that the Netherlands, or Dutch people, should not be afraid that Ukraine may be a member of NATO or EU in 20 or 25 years? Have they played some role?

“Well, it may play a role in the sense that people think ‘Ah, this is not about EU membership.’ And, of course, it is not about EU membership, in the Association Treaty there is nothing about EU membership. Well, the treaty means integration into the European market in exchange for fundamental reforms. If these fundamental reforms are successful, and they are successful maybe in 20 years’ time, or 25 years’ time, some things will take time, just to adopt all these rules and regulations, EU standards… but if Ukraine would really accomplish that, and then we get to a point where Ukraine can fully say they fit the Copenhagen criteria, which are the criteria for membership. Ukraine is a European country and in principle, it could apply for membership, and then we will see again, but it is a long process anyhow. So, I mean, it is not a discussion we have to go for, to decide on membership tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, this may take 20 years. But I mean, if Ukraine accomplishes these fundamental reforms with support of the European Union, and therefore, I see this treaty as very important, then it can come to a point where they could apply successfully for membership. But it will be a completely different situation, no one knows, of course, what will happen with the EU in the same time, because this is not the only problem the EU is facing, we have two migration crises, we have, well, still not completely got out of this euro crisis, the problems with Greece, Brexit is looming, so we have a lot of other things. So, in 20 years’ time you may also face a completely different EU.”

What should Ukraine do in this situation, in order to ensure a positive vote? How should our country present itself to the Dutch people?

“I think it is important that Dutch people hear views from Ukraine, and we have been also trying to convey that to them and also on our own website to have Ukrainian voices. I know Ukrainian diaspora in the Netherlands is very active because it is important in the debate. A lot of politicians talk about well, Ukraine this and Ukraine that, but the important part is just to ask Ukrainians what it means for them. And then, I think it’s important to show that reform is a very difficult process, and of course, there’s still a lot of corruption, and oligarchs, and politics, and all that, but it is important to show some results of the reforms, and I think there is a lot of legislation already passed, also under pressure from the European side. But it’s important to show that it keeps moving forward, it’s important to hear young people, for example, from Maidan, talking about this and explaining how important it is for them to see this reform process moving forward. And I think that can change the mood of also part of the electorate, not only these academic debates or debates between experts, but people really telling about what kind of reforms are already there, what was done in these two years’ time, and how important it is for them. So, when we were in Kyiv last time, we talked also to broad coalition supporting reforms, young Maidan activists. It is good to hear these forces also in the Netherlands in the run-up to the referendum. We talked to some LGBT activists, and they said: ‘Well, there is now some legislation in place, it would never have been accepted if not for this European support,’ because Europe demanded this type of reforms, also in the context of visa liberalization and all this. And so, there are results, and there is still long way to go, OK, but it is important to show reforms and what does it mean for people, for civil activists, who really are helped by these reforms.”

What is your opinion of the recommendations issued by the Institute of World Policy on communication concerning the Association Agreement?

“Well, it should be part of it, but I think it’s quite good, it’s important to focus on positive things, to show the importance of reforms and that it is working, and to convey that this is not about membership, because that already helps in discussions with part of the electorate, to show the opportunities it offers also for the Netherlands, for Dutch business, that is important for reforms, anti-corruption, rule of law, human rights in the broadest sense, and if there is a prosperous and stable country there, it is in the interest of all of us. We still have to convince the Russians that basically, it will be in their interest as well, but I know the Kremlin sees this differently, but it’s up to the Ukrainians to decide, not for the Kremlin.”

The Association Agreement aims at Ukraine’s rapprochement with the EU. Why won’t the opponents of the AA take this into consideration?

“I’m glad about one thing in this debate, I see there is now more debates in the Netherlands, every evening is debate on Ukraine. Before this, there was only very limited number of people who knew anything about Ukraine, and that is now gradually changing. So, it is important for people just know where it is and what people are doing there.

“For a lot of people, this was only connected with war out there and MH17 shootdown. And that were the only things the broad public knew about Ukraine. Now they know much more, also thanks to the efforts of Ukrainian government, but also Ukrainian activists coming over to the Netherlands and talking about this. That’s important so that they know. Also, there is sometimes some debate about this visa liberalization that some of the parties, especially these anti-migration parties, then they say ‘Oh, all Ukrainians will come and take our jobs.’ Well, this is not the case, I mean, when you get visa liberalization, it will be easier to get a tourist visa, but it doesn’t mean everyone can simply go to the Netherlands and work. But very often, people are really not open to this kind of arguments.

“Even within the parties in government, there is still a lot of their electorate to be won in the run-up to the referendum, just to explain what is treaty really about, what it’s not about, what is its importance for us, for the EU at large, for the Netherlands. That is all work in progress, so I am not too pessimistic that the outcome is ‘No.’ It can be ‘Yes,’ and even if it’s ‘No,’ then it depends very much on the margins. If it’s a slight ‘No,’ then parties in parliament can still say, because it’s a consultative referendum, ‘Well, we will neglect it, we will ratify anyhow.’ But yes, it calls for some political leadership also in the parties concerned, of course, we will have our own elections next year, so that may be a factor for some of them. But if the margins are slight, if it’s just above 30 percent, and if parties know that big part of their own electorate was in favor, then I think it makes it much easier to approve it.”

Anyway, for this time, can there be some trends positive or negative? What do you think, can there be some kind of changes till April 6? What are they?

“It can still change. There are two kinds of polls, one showing that the projections for the turnout are just above 30 percent, so it could easily also mean that if there are not enough people motivated to really turn out and go and vote, that it will get below 30 percent, some people are even thinking strategically, they don’t like the referendum, they do like the treaty with Ukraine, so they are in doubt whether or not to go out and vote, and maybe at 6 o’clock in the evening they will look what the turnout is, and decide then whether or not to go and vote. I think that is dangerous, I think it can be just a few percentage points above 30 percent, and then it’s valid anyhow. ‘No’ voters may be more motivated to go out and vote, but when you look at individual parties, there are still a lot of people to be convinced also within the political parties, even the government parties. There are also quite some people who don’t like this type of referendum at all, so they don’t want to participate in fact. And for these people to be motivated, because they care about Ukraine, about this treaty, that’s job which still has to be done.

“But the main campaigning has only just started, so you cannot really show the effects of this yet. Some parties were already campaigning a bit earlier, from February 1, but I think, as from past week, there will be very intensive campaigning, As I told, you can go every night now to a debate on Ukraine and on the Association Treaty. This can have some effect. I think it can also have a very positive effect on the turnout if you explain to people how important this really is. It is about more motivating the potential ‘Yes’ vote, because part of the ‘No’ vote, those you would not get anyhow, they are anti-EU, you won’t win them over to your side, it is more about the potential ‘Yes’ vote which has to be convinced that it’s important enough for them to really go to the polling station.”