About two intrigues and “the emperor’s new clothes”

Corruption scandals involving frontrunners of the presidential race are gaining momentum in France. A little more than a month before the first round of the election, to be held on April 23, the former prime minister 63-year-old Francois Fillon and the leader of the far-right National Front 48-year-old Marine Le Pen both look likely to get time in prison for misuse of public funds and embezzlement. Fillon stands accused of providing his wife Penelope with fictitious employment as a parliamentary aide during his tenure as MP. On the other hand, 39-year-old Emmanuel Macron is soaring in the polls, having created the En Marche! movement, which unlike Le Pen, advocates preserving the EU.

The Day asked the Paris-based head of the Russia department at the Politique Internationale journal Galia ACKERMAN to tell us more about the peculiarities of the current presidential campaign and the candidates’ chances of winning it.

“FILLON HAS TOTALLY COMPROMISED HIMSELF”

“I see the current presidential campaign as exciting and interesting. I would like to mention two intrigues here. Firstly, all the cards which seemed to have been laid on the table have been suddenly reshuffled. The fact is that when the French right voted in the primary for Fillon, they did not yet know that a scandal would erupt involving fictitious employment of Fillon’s spouse and children. This scandal is additionally exacerbated by the fact that Fillon offered the French a very tough reform of the healthcare system and an extension of the working week without proper compensation. All the while, he portrayed himself as a model of integrity and honesty in serving France. However, it turned out that while serving France, he pocketed one million euros.

“If he used his MP expenses to pay his spouse, who, according to all accounts, never did any work and never appeared on job, as no one saw her there, it means that he himself did nothing as MP. Therefore, the money intended for the parliamentary aides was simply grabbed by his family. What can be expected from such a man, if he becomes president of the republic, then? What secret deals, what under-the-table contracts, what kickbacks can be expected from him? In other words, this individual has totally compromised himself, and there have been numerous desertions from Fillon’s camp, involving more and more people by the day. He is being deserted by his closest supporters, and his stubbornness and refusal to withdraw from the race will actually reduce the chances of the right to win this election, which seemed eminently winnable.”

“MACRON IS A UNIFYING CANDIDATE”

“The second part of the intrigue is related to the first. I mean soaring public support for Macron, who popped up from nowhere like some sort of jack-in-the-box. He started as a bank employee, then worked in the Ministry of Economy, served as minister of economy in the government of Francois Hollande. You can say that he was a talented young ambitious politician, who had nothing but his ambition until a few months ago. But over a few months, Fillon has cobbled together his own movement – En Marche! – which can be translated as ‘Onwards, France!’ And then, since among the Socialists the former prime minister Manuel Valls, who holds center-left views, lost the primary to Benoit Hamon, who represents the left wing of the Socialist Party, it turned out that the entire center was completely open.

“In other words, a huge hole appeared between the right wing of the Republicans, which is represented by Fillon, and the left wing of the Socialist Party, and this hole has become filled by 39-year-old Macron. He is dynamic and, indeed, turned out to be the right man in the right time. Macron presented his program yesterday [the interview was recorded on March 3. – Author.]. And since nature abhors a vacuum, he has been getting all sorts of people joining him, from both left and right. Thus, he turned out to be a unifying candidate, and is now supported by the French politician and leader of the Democratic Movement Francois Bayrou, who ran for president on four occasions.”