Nazarbayev’s re-election

Kazakhstan’s incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbayev was predictably re-elected for the fifth time, winning 97.5 percent of the vote, reasserting what appears to be his ad infinitum place on top of the local political Olympus since 1989 when he was First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic.

Section 5, Article 42 of the Constitution of Kazakhstan, reads that the same person cannot be elected as president for more than two times running. In 2007, this clause was amended so the said limitation could not apply to the “first President of the Republic of Kazakhstan.” I might as well point out that Mr. Nazarbayev will celebrate his 75th birthday this summer.

He commented on the exit poll results while in the Library of the First President of Kazakhstan: “The record high turnout at the vote demonstrated the unity of Kazakhstan’s people, their desire to live in a stable state and their support for the program I put forward before them.”

The OSCE observers in Kazakhstan said the entire election campaign was rigged, pointing to ballot boxes lacking proper seals, 46 cases of ballot box stuffing, multiple and group voting, etc. “Voters were not offered a genuine choice between political alternatives… There were significant restrictions to the freedom of expression, as well as to the media environment,” said Cornelia Jonker, head of the election observation mission of the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, concluding that public debate had been practically reduced to nil under the circumstances, and that that was the reason behind Nazarbayev’s victory.

After hearing the Central Election Commission’s announcement, Nazarbayev thanked his electorate and shared his plans for the next five years. http://en.tengrinews.kz/ quotes him as saying, “We have qualified personnel, sufficient financial resources, political stability, unity and friendship of the people. We will carry out the tasks set in the industrialization program Nurly Zhol, we will make sure Kazakhstan joins the 30 most developed countries of the world, improving the life of Kazakhstanis.”

Although some analysts in the West have sarcastically tagged him as Kazakhstan’s lasting president, one ought to consider what Nazarbayev has done for his country. In 1997, he ordered the capital transferred to Astana, developed the city so it is currently known as Kazakhstan’s calling card. He has also taken care of the younger generation, initiating Project Bolashak (The Future) back in 1993, including presidential scholarships that allowed young gifted people to study at foreign universities. Several thousand Kazakhstanis have enjoyed them, with most such graduates currently occupying important government posts.

The Day asked Dosym SATPAYEV, director, Kazakhstan Risk Assessment Group, for comment on the presidential election, also on how realistic President Nazarbayev’s plans are.

MANY IN KAZAKHSTAN FEAR FOREIGN PRESSURE THAT CAN DAMAGE ITS SOVEREIGNTY

“They joke in Kazakhstan that the presidential campaign wasn’t election but re-election. In fact, the incumbent faced opposition that was practically nonexistent. He was the only winning candidate, as had been the case with all the previous campaigns. This election was a political show with a cast where each actor knew his lines and time on stage. Serious analysts in Kazakhstan were not exactly interested in the presidential campaign with its predictable outcome. During the previous campaign Nazarbayev had won 95.5 percent of the vote, so the outcome this time had to be better. Unlike President Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan, President Nazarbayev held the status of the Leader of the Nation. This implied maximum election turnout. Our powers that be fell into their own trap; the leader couldn’t have possibly won less ballots than previously. Every effort was made to secure an even better turnout, although where exactly more ballots were cast or statistics tampered with remains anyone’s guess. But this isn’t important, after all has been said and done.

“The big question is what will happen in Kazakhstan after the presidential election. Another important issue (it’s being discussed all over the country) is whether this is Nazarbayev’s last re-election; whether he will remain in office for the next five years or step down and launch the political continuity vehicle. He can do this with his leader-of-the-nation status and the attendant powers that are very strong.

“We’re also discussing political reforms. Will these reforms start taking place after the presidential election? Back in March, addressing his Nur Otan Party, Nazarbayev said it was necessary to carry out ‘five institutional reforms,’ particularly in regard to the government, economy, and the judiciary. He also wanted Kazakh society to rally round the national idea, promising that the reforms would be implemented after the presidential election. What I have in mind is transforming Kazakhstan into a presidential-parliamentary republic. This issue has been discussed for a number of years and the president didn’t rule out the possibility when he said that changes to the Constitution could be eventually made. He didn’t specify, so we don’t know when this will happen.

“Anyway, many in Kazakhstan realize that their country needs political reforms, considering that its economy remains under control, for the time being. There are lots of flaws in politics and this poses a threat to the continuity of power. Because of the weak political institutions in Kazakhstan, its president won’t be able to secure national stability for long after stepping down. Our parliament and judiciary are weak, our government machine is absolutely inefficient and unpopular. This is a problem in terms of long-term stability.

“Nazarbayev is facing many challenges and tasks, considering that he has to start reinforcing his political system over such a short period of time, by using his authority, popularity, as well as by using strong political institutions. He will dedicate his new term to the strengthening of his country in the face of domestic and foreign challenges. There are many domestic challenges in Kazakhstan, as evidenced by what happened in Zhanaozen in 2011. There are many reefs and undercurrents that can wreak havoc on this country under certain circumstances.

“Among the foreign challenges are what’s happening in Ukraine and ambiguous statements made by some Russian politicians concerning the sovereignty of Kazakhstan. The sanctions war between Russia and the West, also Moscow’s re-export war with Belarus and Kazakhstan have finally put an end to the Eurasian Economic Union. That’s a fact, considering that the main EEU principles – free commodity, manpower, services and money movement – have been violated. There is actually no such movement, although Nazarbayev is all out for the project and will hold the fort for the duration of his office. He has declared that the EEU is a long-term project meant for the good of Kazakhstan. Political practice shows that governments tend to change and that this results in a different foreign policy. There is no telling how much longer Kazakhstan will be taking part in this project. There have always been options for this republic, so it can call it quits as soon as it realizes its unprofitability.

“The problem is that Nazarbayev has little time left and many challenges to meet. I don’t know how the man will cope with them, but he has wasted time politically and is getting late in a sense. Even if he sets about making serious political changes, reforms, there is no telling whether he will have the time to accomplish any of them, or that any will yield fruit.

“In Kazakhstan, the elite and bureaucracy are the number one holdback in carrying out any reform. The government machine Nazarbayev built to secure stability is gradually becoming a major stagnation factor. Nazarbayev will have a hard time resetting the system because the process is being slowed down, even sabotaged at certain levels.”