Victory for the Davutoglu-Erdogan duo

Rather unexpectedly, the early parliamentary election held in Turkey on November 1 resulted in a victory for the Islamic conservative party of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which lost its majority in parliament six months ago for the first time in 13 years. The majority of opinion polls conducted on the eve of the early election put the Justice and Development Party (AKP), founded by the current president, at 43 percent of the vote, and the majority of commentators discussed possibility of a coalition.

In the end, Erdogan’s political party won 49.4 percent of the vote. “The feeling of instability in Turkey, combined with Erdogan’s ‘strong man who can protect you’ strategy, worked,” director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy Soner Cagaptay explained this result in a tweet.

Seats in the parliament were also won by the Republican People’s Party, which had received more than a quarter of the vote, the Nationalist Movement Party, which received 12 percent of the vote, lower by four percentage points compared to the previous election, and the Peoples’ Democratic Party, representing the Kurdish minority, barely cleared the 10 percent electoral threshold.

The AKP now has 316 seats, or in other words, a comfortable majority in the Majlis, which includes a total of 550 representatives. This is not enough, though, to change the constitution, which was Erdogan’s stated objective before the June 7 election, when he tried to change the nation’s political structure to a presidential republic.

President Erdogan called this result of the party he is linked to “a powerful response” to the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ahmed Davutoglu tweeted: “Elhamdulillah” (We must thank God for it). Later, speaking to supporters, he said: “Today is the victory day for our democracy and our people. I hope we will serve you well for the next four years and will present ourselves again to you in 2019.” In addition, Davutoglu called for changes in the constitution. “The current system does not meet the needs of Turkey. Obviously, these clothes have become too small for our country. Let us move from the constitution created after the coup towards a more civilian and liberal basic law,” the prime minister stressed.

Davutoglu has promised to protect the rights of all citizens and freedoms of thought and religion. Such promises make an odd impression, though, after recent raids by security forces on opposition media associated with Erdogan’s main enemy, cleric Fethullah Gulen, which included closures of two TV stations and seizures of newspaper offices. All this only reinforces concerns about the erosion of free speech and the rule of law.

In addition, according to observers, the return to one-party rule and resultant strengthening of the power of President Erdogan could exacerbate social divisions in the country. Before the election, analysts warned of the risks posed by the deep polarization between devout conservatives who defend Erdogan as a hero of the working class and Western-oriented secularists who fear his authoritarianism and his Islamic ideals.

In an article for POLITICO, former member of the Turkish parliament Aykan Erdemir expresses his belief that the AKP victory was facilitated by the hostilities between the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and the Erdogan regime. According to him, Turkey descends further into authoritarianism and the election’s results could push the party further toward authoritarian excesses and reprisals against the opposition. If the election ends up highlighting Turkey’s image as a grudgingly democratic authoritarian regime, it could turn into a Pyrrhic victory for the AKP as it suffers the economic costs and political consequences of Turkey’s drift away from the transatlantic world, the author maintains.

According to him, this election failed to provide Erdogan with the super-majority he needed, but Davutoglu proved his leadership skills and strengthened his credentials within the AKP, which may be the beginning of the end for the Davutoglu-Erdogan duo. If the two, the author continues, fail to arrive at a modus vivendi about the future parameters of power sharing, election celebrations could soon lead to brutal infighting in the AKP ranks, adding further fuel to Turkey’s political chaos and conflict.

COMMENTARY

“NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS IN TURKEY, THIS COUNTRY HAS TO BE FRIENDLY TO US”

Oleksandr BOHOMOLOV, president of the Center for Middle East Studies, Kyiv:

“The situation in Turkey has changed after the previous election seriously enough. Security challenges have arisen, making the electorate, just as Erdogan hoped, to mobilize better than last time. Effectively, he used the internal resource of conservative devout population, which supports the AKP. And secondly, the success of Erdogan’s party was facilitated by the fact that some leaders of the Nationalist Movement Party have moved to his side.

“However, Turks themselves state that there is unprecedentedly high tension between the more secular, more Europeanized part of the nation and its more traditional Middle Eastern part. The vote’s results indicate polarization of Turkish society. Almost 50 percent of the vote, which the AKP received, represent a united bloc of society, while the rest of voters who voted for three other parties are divided even as they oppose the AKP’s course and the initiatives of the president.

“Many hoped that Erdogan’s party would not achieve a majority in this election, thus forcing him to negotiate with the rest of the parliament parties to form a coalition.

“The polarization of society is set to continue, just as observers warned. Moreover, there are concerns that it may increase. AKP sources have said that the current course in foreign and domestic policy will continue, and yet mysteriously stressed that the government will return to a dialog with the Kurds ‘in some other way.’

“Overall, Turkey is facing the same problems and external challenges as before, but they are now being exacerbated. In this situation, we can only say that the election demonstrated the cohesion of a half of Turkey.

“What about the possible impact of the election results on the relations between Turkey and Ukraine? So far, we have seen Turkey evolving favorably for Ukraine, as the former is an important but somewhat neglected partner for our country. Ukraine has many neighbors, but much depends on the southern direction of our foreign policy.

“Despite the fact that Erdogan has quite warm relations with Russia, his policy is moving towards a better understanding of our problems and in particular the problem of Crimea, and the need to support the Crimean Tatars. However, Ukraine has much to do to improve relations, to achieve a better and deeper understanding and realization of common ground, to promote common interests in the economic sphere. And most importantly, no matter what happens in Turkey, this country has to be friendly to us.”