The battle between Ewa and Beata

The parliamentary election will be held in Poland on October 25. Just like during the presidential race, the main contenders are the two giants of Polish politics: the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party of former prime minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski (whose twin brother, president Lech Kaczynski, died in a plane crash near Smolensk on April 10, 2010) and the liberal Civic Platform (PO) party, which has been the party of government for the past eight years. Characteristically, the fight is led by two women: the current Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz, who heads the Civic Platform, and Beata Szydlo, chosen by PiS’s leader Kaczynski as the official parliamentary campaign face of the party and its candidate for the office of prime minister. Interestingly, the United Left also bet on a woman, having elected Barbara Nowacka as the social democrats’ new leader.

By the way, a TV duel of two ladies will be held for the first time in the modern history of Poland on the eve of the parliamentary election. The debate, entitled “Beata Szydlo – Ewa Kopacz. A Talk about Poland,” was held in the night of October 19 and broadcast by leading television channels TVP1, TVP INFO and TVN24.

The Day has turned to director of the Wroclaw Global Forum at the US’s Atlantic Council Michal Kobosko for a comment on the parliamentary election in Poland and his take on what is at stake in this election, how it differs from previous presidential and parliamentary elections, and what explains the popularity of Kaczynski’s conservative party.

“These are very important elections in Poland, perhaps the most important since many years. What differs these elections from presidential, is that according to the Polish constitution the powers of president are fairly limited: he is supervising the Polish armed forces and has a word in foreign policy. But he has no strong influence on the political and parliamentary process, except for having an option to veto the specific legislation.

“The real power in Poland belongs to the prime minister and his/her Cabinet. Therefore, it is crucial to reach a clear majority in Sejm, the lower house of the Parliament. Since 2007, a long years in Poland’s modern history, it was the Civic Platform which ruled the country. For seven years under prime minister Donald Tusk, and over the past year Ewa Kopacz – after Tusk left the office when he became the President of the European Council.

“PO was initially a liberal party. Over the years it moved to the center, pushing for more state presence in the economy, and staying rather conservative on social issues. What did not change, is the pro-European sentiment in the party and the government. Recently this was visible Prime Minister Kopacz supported the EU idea of inviting thousands of refugees to Poland.”

Why is Civic Platform losing this election, taking into account that under its governance Poland has growth when most other economies in Europe have no?

“Poles seem to be tired and bored with the ruling of PO. The party does not act as smoothly as under Tusk regime, Prime Minister Kopacz is much less charismatic, and has no real power among the party elites. Additionally PO has been involved in a number of scandals and affairs, which further weakened the polls. According to the most recent figures, on October 25 PO will land some 10 percent points behind a party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski (PiS).”

What does the party Law and Justice constitute now? Why is it so popular in Poland or, in other way, why most Polish are going to vote for this political force?

“PiS is the only alternative for PO in the current reality of Polish politics. All other parties play a minor role, including the peasants’ party, PSL, and the leftist United Left. And PiS has already been ruling Poland in the years 2005-07. The huge asset of the party is its charismatic leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski. He is also a very conservative catholic politician, much more pro-American, than pro-European. Kaczynski has strong feelings against Russia, especially after his twin brother Lech died dramatically in the Smolensk aircraft catastrophe in 2010. PiS represents the nationalistic approach, supports the idea of a strong expanded state apparatus, heavily involved in governing the economy. PiS’s historical politics is focused on celebrating the positive cards of Poland’s history and greatness.

“It is not strange that many Poles buy this version of the present and the past. PiS’s supporters believe that the ruling PO betrayed the country and our national pride, making Poland too much dependent on the EU rulings and our relations with Germany.”

What kind of policy towards EU and Ukraine can one expect from Poland, if this party wins the election and Beata Szydlo becomes prime minister? Will Jaroslaw Kaczynski dictate to both Szydlo and Duda?

“Kaczynski was very smart nominating Andrzej Duda to run for the president. While the polls early this year indicated a clear victory of incumbent Bronislaw Komorowski, Duda worked very hard, he showed his ambition, dynamism, and modern approach while campaigning in the spring. This finally gave him a convincing victory in May presidential election. Kaczynski aims to repeat this scenario in October elections. Instead of nominating himself for the future prime minister office, he came out with the candidacy of Beata Szydlo, deputy head of the party. Kaczynski’s idea: a woman running against the other woman, Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz.

“It remains unclear today, if future prime minister would have a chance to stay independent and play her own cards. Or she would be very loyal to Kaczynski. If so, Kaczynski would become a non-constitutional head of the country. Poland never had such an experiment.

“As for the Eastern policy, you can be sure that Kaczynski and his party will remain very anti-Russian in their rhetoric. The question remains though how PiS bloc will behave in Poland relations with Ukraine. PiS party is being a history driven party, and history – or the interpretation of the history – differs Poles from Ukrainians. In Poland the rising cult of Bandera in Ukraine is being met with mixed feelings.”

Was Michnik right when he told before the second tour of the presidential election that the dark days are waiting for Poland? In other words he suggested that Duda choice is bad for Poland. What would you say on this?

“It is much too early to say that Poland is facing dark days. As for President Duda, his plans need to be linked to his reelection plans in five years from now. His victory in the presidential election took Poland by surprise. But now he has to start building his own bloc, if he really aims to be reelected. That would mean playing rather independent from his own party and from his mentor Kaczynski.

“Regarding the parliamentary elections, all options are still in play. PiS may win elections, but not highly enough to start forming their own Cabinet. It might happen that PO might try to form a three or four party coalition, with an aim of stopping PiS. Anyway, Polish politics has never since 1989 been so uncertain and shaky as it is these days.”