The price of Orange unity
A month before the anniversary of the Orange Revolution and two months after the split in what was once the single victorious Maidan team, we are once again hearing about the need for unity. One of the most active proponents of this idea is Petro Poroshenko, ex-secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, who spoke about this during a recent roundtable entitled “The Orange Revolution: Hope and Results.” The roundtable also witnessed the first meeting between Petro Poroshenko and former State Secretary Oleksandr Zinchenko (currently leader of the Patriotic Forces Party of Ukraine) after the latter’s revelatory press conference. “The Maidan team should unite before the parliamentary elections,” said Poroshenko, “and if individual politicians are interfering with the process, then this will be the price they will have to pay.” When he said this, the ex-secretary of the NSDC gave the former State Secretary a meaningful look. Several times during his speech Poroshenko led it be understood-through hints and more meaningful looks-who in his opinion is responsible for the breakup of the Maidan team and who no longer deserves a place on “the historic square.”
The ex-State Secretary was quick to reciprocate. He declared that he refuses to shake hands with Poroshenko because he is convinced that “this should not be done until certain measures have been carried out.” It is not difficult to guess what measures Zinchenko had in mind, as he immediately added that the closure of the criminal case against Poroshenko “is one of the fundamental bases, which is not allowing our teams to unite.”
Poroshenko indicated his “price of unity” with the words “any conditions.” This was his reply when he was asked whether the exclusion of Poroshenko’s name from the pre-election roster can be a condition of the Orange team’s unification (as though the omission of his name excludes the possibility of appointing anyone to a high post, e.g., the executive branch). On the whole, the price Poroshenko is willing to pay may turn out to be very low. At the same time, Zinchenko’s price (renewing legal proceedings against the ex-Secretary of the NSDC) is simply unrealistic.
Nevertheless, is the unification of the Orange team possible? Viktor Nebozhenko, a political scientist, is skeptical . He says that for Yulia Tymoshenko the main condition of possible unification is the guarantee of her prime ministership, as was the case during the presidential campaign. “The mere presence in the Cabinet of Ministers of representatives of the Batkivshchyna party will by no means satisfy Tymoshenko,” notes the political scientist. “She may agree not to be prime minister for several months only if she is offered the key posts on the National Security and Defense Council, the SBU, the post of foreign minister, or head of the State Property Fund,” says Nebozhenko.
At the same time the political scientist noted that “All the political and sociological studies indicate that together they (Our Ukraine and ByuT — Ed.) will collect considerably more votes during the elections.” Therefore, from the standpoint of electoral success, this alliance would be positive for both teams. But “the problem is that both of these political forces have cultivated their own politicians and businesspeople, so it is not entirely clear how they can be together without killing the joint political project,” says Nebozhenko. Below, another expert shares his views on the possible unification of the split team.
Another important question is still unresolved: what is to be done about the celebrations of the revolution’s anniversary, for which the People’s Union “Our Ukraine” has already submitted an application to the Kyiv Municipal State Administration? Who will address the people gathered on the Maidan on this date, considering that all the leaders of the Orange Revolution without exception have expressed their desire and right to be “with the people”? Will the Maidan be divided into supporters of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, with the representatives of both teams addressing “his or her” audience? What about the possibility that the supporters of 17 other political forces, which have nothing whatsoever to do with the year-old protest actions on this square, will gather on the Maidan? Among them will be the Progressive Socialists led by Natalia Vitrenko and Korchynsky’s Bratstvo, both of whom have already made their dissenting position clear and have also formally requested City Hall to allow various actions on the Maidan come Nov. 20. An absurd situation is forming. One can only hope that the Maidan anniversary does not turn into a funeral banquet.
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Vasyl STOYAKIN, director, Center for Political Market Research:
From the technological point of view this alliance would be useful for Yushchenko and Tymoshenko’s teams. Of course, they will never reach their previous level of popularity, yet this would help raise their ratings on the eve of the elections. However, it is absolutely unrealistic to expect even the theoretical possibility of any kind of unification on their part simply because these forces are in power. Under Kuchma it was possible to unite the pro-government forces, mostly because there was a man capable of uniting them. Unfortunately, Viktor Yushchenko is not capable of this. And so they quarreled, they are quarreling, and will continue quarreling, all the more so as a number of other problems — political as well as interpersonal ones — have emerged, which constitute a serious obstacle on the road to any kind of reconciliation. It has transpired, for example, that some people feel ashamed standing next to someone else on the Maidan (although that someone did not feel that way before). I mean, I absolutely do not believe that this alliance will ever come to pass. Most likely the current pro-governmental forces will all march separately to the elections in four different columns: Our Ukraine, BYuT, Lytvyn’s party, and Moroz’s.
If this alliance is so unrealistic, why did Poroshenko make such a statement? What was his aim?
Stoyakin: He is a clever man, one of the best political tacticians and strategists in this team; at the very least he is one of the impressive political figures. He is perfectly aware that his and President Yushchenko’s political future depends on the election results, and that the best option for both of them would be to march into power as a single bloc. That way they could succeed in achieving the best possible result during the elections; most importantly, they could establish some kind of discipline in the ruling team thanks to the imperative mandate that is being introduced as a result of political reform that is being validated. In other words, all those who disagree with the “general line” will have to keep mum or write a declaration about resigning their seats in parliament. Generally speaking, I would be surprised if Poroshenko didn’t make this statement.
If no reconciliation is possible, how do you think the Orange Revolution’s anniversary will be celebrated on the Maidan, where all the leaders have expressed their desire to be?
Stoyakin: They will all be there. But they will be showing their backs to each other and slandering each other in their speeches. I think that this will be a total scandal on the personal level, even among rank-and-file Maidan participants, who will be trying to figure out from each other why they stood here a year ago and what they are doing there now.
