Is the tandem splitting?

The world is attentively watching each step of the governing tandem Medvedev-Putin. Many wonder which member of this duumvirate will participate in the presidential elections in 2012. The experts have now gleaned some more insight from a skirmish between the Russian president and the prime minister concerning Libya. Last Monday during his speech at the rocket production plant in the South of Russia, Vladimir Putin stated that the resolution by the UN Security Council on the hostilities in Libya, supported by the US, Great Britain and France, reminded him of “a medieval appeal to the crusades.” This resolution “is defective,” he added. Several hours later Medvedev criticized Putin for his choice of words. “It is inadmissible to use expressions factually leading to a collision of the civilizations, such as crusades, etc. It’s unacceptable. We should be most careful with claims characterizing the events in Libya,” remarked Medvedev. Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the magazine Russia in Global Affairs, thinks that Putin’s speech reflects his discontent with Medvedev’s increasing independence before the presidential elections, set for March 2012. “It’s all about the influence inside the go-verning tandem before the final decision about the future Russian president,” added Lukyanov.

COMMENTARIES

Gleb PAVLOVSKY, co-founder of Foundation for Effective Politics:

“The Russian prime minister’s statement had to be corrected, since Putin spoke as a private person and his appraisal, close to the opinion concerning Libya shared by most people in Russia, was emotional. However, the statement was politically incorrect, which made the president correct it; by the way, not only Putin, but also other officials made similar statements. That is why the president had to explain the official position.

“Certainly, this can be regarded as an intensification of the political game, as the elections are set for next year. However, it’s not a sign of competition inside the tandem. That is why the only thing we can be sure about is that Medvedev and Putin will never reject the tandem as the concept of government, which is very profitable for both of them, because it would be their loss before the elections. The people first support this political union, and only then this or that candidate. That is why I don’t think that the president and the prime minister will destroy their support at this moment.

“We should understand that a tandem doesn’t necessarily mean the president and the prime minister. The tandem is a political union of two popular personalities, two leading politicians. This political union can have various forms, and not only the current one. I think, the tandem will remain one way or another. If those two politicians don’t manage to preserve it, they will make a mistake and the voters will see it as a failure.

“We shouldn’t raise the question who of them is better for Russia and who should participate in the presidential elections. We are interested in their program. I’m rather concerned about the unclear program of the future president, and it has to be clarified. I think that if the competition between Medvedev and Putin exists, then it should be a competition of political ideas and suggestions, allowing us to find our own interests in the game.

“To be honest, today the country is showing what is really important for the voters. The main issue is who will better guarantee the preservation of the status quo of the minimal standard of living, as well as the mi-nimal personal development and additional possibilities. However, I think that the question concerning these guarantees and their security will be central to the coming elections.”

Semen NOVOPRUDSKY, deputy editor-in-chief of the newspaper Vremia Novostey:

“Judging from what the prime-minister has been recently doing, it’s clear that he has started campaigning. As for the case with Libya, with his sharp claims Putin has worried the Russian elite that it might provoke protests that would be extremely undesirable for the government. He has scared the Russian elite much more than the Orange Revolution in Ukraine did.

“I think that some people would love to see Medvedev in power, at least as president. It’s possible that Medvedev feels strong enough, and is beginning to test his possibilities as an independent politician. One can not see this from his actions, as he is not doing anything against Putin, but rather his statements. As for the statements, it’s not the first case, but, probably, the sharpest. The near future will show whether it concerns only the words or Medvedev will decide to take action. I think that we can hardly speak about absolute unity in the tandem. A part of the elite in power will aspire to keep Putin, and the other will do everything so that he doesn’t get a new term. If Putin becomes the president again, there won’t be any tandem. If it happens, Medvedev is unlikely to fall into disgrace; he will rather get an honorable position. It’s very difficult to asses Putin and Medvedev as two equal politicians so far. If Putin embodies the whole Russian government, Medvedev is rather a symbol of some groups that would like to change something. He’s rather the means for decorative changes from the top. Regarding actions, they don’t have any important contradictions. We could often witness Medvedev’s expressions, borrowed from Putin’s style, his jokes and sharp rhetoric. Now there is no reason to speculate about any conflicts. However, if Medvedev wants to try to remain in power himself he will have to strain his relations with Putin.”