Playing by the old rules
Will the next elections improve our political system? Can voters influence the process?
The drawn-out political perturbations in the Ukrainian parliament reached their logical end when President Viktor Yushchenko exercised his constitutional right and issued Edict No. 911/2008 “On the Premature Termination of the Authority of the Sixth Convocation of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and the Scheduling of Early Elections.” The constitutional deadline for parliament to form a new coalition was Oct. 3, since the democratic coalition ceased to exist on Sept. 3, 2008.
In addition, Sept. 30 marked one year from the date of the early elections of the sixth parliament, and an earlier dissolution of parliament was forbidden by the Constitution of Ukraine. The early parliamentary elections are scheduled for Dec. 7, 2008. President Yushchenko gave the Ukrainian parliament another day to pass a number of bills on the financing of the early elections and changes to the state voters list. The presidential edict will take effect after being officially published in the Prezydentskyi visnyk (Presidential Herald).
Through no fault of its own, the Ukrainian public has once again been dragged into an election campaign. Despite the high degree of political apathy, the Ukrainian people should still give some thought to the quality of the early elections. All the political rhetoric around the publication of the presidential edict is of secondary importance. What should be considered is whether the electorate will be able to regulate the course of the election campaign in any way. What will these new elections with closed party and bloc slates bring? Is there a way for voters to change the critical situation in the country?
Viktor NEBOZHENKO, political scientist, director of the sociological service Ukrainian Barometer:
The Ukrainian population does not have any real opportunities to tell politicians anything. The two-month election campaign will pass in an atmosphere of the usual populism, with slogans like “Everything in the name of the people!”, “Higher wages!,” “Political stability!,” and “Peace, fraternity, friendship!” There will be mutual accusations, and buckets of dirt will be hurled left and right, and so on. Early elections do not allow for a dialog between politicians and the people. Two months is not enough time for the population to exert any influence on the politicians, while the latter have no way to get through to the people.
As for the campaign process, every party group will reap its electoral harvest, with the “jackal parties” dividing the remainder amongst themselves. These parliamentary elections are a means of resolving an internal conflict of the elites. But, after all, elections are better than gunfire on the streets. There is no time to change Ukraine’s election laws, and the rules cannot be changed while the game is underway.
Volodymyr STUS, expert at the Ukrainian Center of Strategic Initiatives:
In the coming election campaign, the political forces that are capable of giving voters detailed explanations on how they can directly influence the political process will be supported. The Ukrainian electorate is marked by a high level of political activity. On the other hand, it is traditionally less and less confident about the government and politicians. Therefore, the political parties that offer voters mechanisms for directly influencing politicians will stand a better chance. As for the people’s influence on political parties, this is something none of the political forces in Ukraine wants. However, the tough competition among the parties during the campaign will force them to meet some of the electorate’s demands halfway. In general, this campaign will register a higher against-all percentage. The MPs can make changes to the election laws before the coming elections, but the president will calmly ignore them because parliament is no longer legally valid.
Yurii MATSIIEVSKY, head of the Department of Political Science at Ostroh Academy National University:
The first thing that voters should demand is a change in the election legislation. The closed party slate technique must be altered. The question is whether our politicians will be willing to make these changes on the eve of the elections. I don‘t think they will, and so the situation will remain the same. To make our politicians introduce such changes, public pressure must be brought to bear. I don’t mean acts of civil disobedience, rallies, pickets, but public messages calling for action, efforts on the part of civic organizations, and letters to the leaders of civic parties. Whether the elections take place on Dec. 7 is also doubtful. Even now there are too many questions about the procedures of drawing up voters lists. The Central Election Commission of Ukraine has said it won’t be ready in two months.
As for changes to the legislation, parliament was supposed to be in session today [Oct. 10, 2008] to deliberate the financing of the early election campaign. This could have resolved a number of problems. However, the main thing is to replace the parliamentary election method by using open slates.
Roman MARTYNIUK, associate professor of political science:
We ought to have started by raising the election barrier to five percent; this would prevent small marginal parties from entering politics and simplify the procedures of reaching an understanding among the various parties. With fewer parties in parliament, it would be easier to identify the political force that would be capable of shouldering responsibility for the situation in our country.
The overall situation looks complicated, since all the current political parties have discredited themselves. None of them will get enough votes to play an important role without forming coalitions with other parties.
Vitalii BALA, expert with the Situation Modeling Agency:
Our people made their choice in 2004, when the events on the Maidan became known throughout the world as the Orange Revolution. I don’t rule out the possibility of such events being repeated this time, because there are no other levers that the Ukrainian people can use in order to influence the political system. The ongoing political crisis will continue at least until the presidential elections. The early parliamentary elections are only a preparation for the presidential campaign. In fact, the presidential campaign will be as tough and dirty as last year’s. I believe that holding parliamentary and presidential elections simultaneously would be a good way out of the political crisis. After all, the second early parliamentary election in two years is proof that the problem lies not only in parliament but also the head of state. The state organism needs a full rather than partial course of treatment.
