Start, false start or finish?

The BYuT, Our Ukraine (NSNU), and the SPU are set to begin forming a democratic coalition. Last Thursday evening their leaders signed the first document on their future cooperation in parliament and triumphantly showed the protocols (on photo). Meanwhile, other representatives of these political forces rushed to the television studios to discuss the future coalition and the prospects of the opposition, which automatically includes the Party of Regions.

During a live talk show hosted by Anna Bezulyk on the 1+1 channel, the Regions’ Yevhen Kushnariov and Our Ukraine’s Roman Zvarych, who heads the party’s legal department, expressed the opinion that it would be a good idea to form a so-called shadow cabinet in Ukraine.

“The current legislation should be complemented by a mechanism called a ‘shadow cabinet,’ which must have complete access to the ministers’ information,” Zvarych proposed. He added that this shadow cabinet could map out and propose alternative ways for the government to resolve problems. Kushnariov said he agrees with Zvarych about the need to form an alternative cabinet of ministers. Kushnariov also stressed that Ukraine does not have standard-setting instruments that regulate the activities of the opposition, so the No. 1 task is to pass a law on the opposition.

In the morning “they woke up,” as a famous song goes. It suddenly became clear at a meeting of Our Ukraine’s political council that this party’s representatives were not aware of what they had signed. The meeting was told that on Thursday the protocol was supplemented by Item 6, which says that “the coalition agreement is to be drawn up on the basis of the principles stipulated in the draft memorandum on establishing the coalition of democratic forces.”

Interfax-Ukraine quotes Pavlo Zhebrivsky, a member of the NSNU presidium, as saying that there are three memorandums, but none of them have been signed. “This is why it is not clear to presidium members which memorandum, in fact an illegitimate one, was referred to,” said Zhebrivsky. At the same time, the BYuT is convinced that this is about the memorandum that they had proposed earlier.

According to this document, the prime minister’s candidature is submitted by the political force in the coalition that won the largest number of votes in the elections (i.e., the BYuT; therefore the candidate for the post of prime minister is Yulia Tymoshenko).

Naturally, this option does not suit Our Ukraine, and the bloc’s political council suggested that by Tuesday the constituent parties should approve the decisions of their governing bodies on the signed protocol, including Item 6.

To do this, they immediately found the necessary stipulation in the signed document: “We must give credit to our negotiators: Roman Bezsmertny and Roman Zvarych acted absolutely correctly and wisely when they took a time- out and wrote that the protocol would take effect after being approved by the party’s highest bodies. They submitted this problem for the presidium debate, and the presidium thus made a decision,” Zhebrivsky said.

All this can mean only one thing: the signed protocol may well be pronounced a false start. The Day asked some political scientists to express their opinions on the future Orange coalition and the need for a “shadow cabinet.”

“This is an attempt to re-create what was compromised at one time”

Volodymyr FESENKO, chairman of the board, Penta Center for Applied Political Studies:

“I would call what happened last Thursday evening a ‘political betrothal’ to be followed by preparations for the wedding. The new coalition will be tested for viability during the vote on the prime minister and the composition of the cabinet. We will then see whether the coalition is really a whole body. There may be surprises during the signing of the coalition agreement because it will be signed not only by party and bloc leaders but also by MPs and members of factions that joined the coalition.

It is an open secret that the most crucial issue here is the attitude to Tymoshenko’s candidature for the prime minister’s post. The naming of Tymoshenko will depend on the strength and cohesion of the coalition’s internal opposition. I would also like to note that internal opposition exists not only in Our Ukraine but also in the ranks of the Socialist Party. And, judging by various indirect indications and backstage rumors, when the socialists were signing the agreement with the BYuT and NSNU, they simultaneously held talks with the Party of Regions.

As for the stability and viability of this coalition, in any case it should go through a certain trial period, a period of adaptation to coexistence. I deliberately compared the coalition to a marriage. The newlyweds should live together for at least a year to pass the compatibility test and conclude whether or not they can coexist. This applies not only to the current participants in the coalition of democratic forces. If, for example, a coalition is being formed around the Party of Regions, it will face the same test.

In any case, I think that we will see to what extent this coalition is stable in the fall, during parliament’s session on the budget. If it rides out the first ‘family crisis,’ it will have certain prospects, but if it ceases to exist in the fall, then either a new government or, more probably, a new coalition will be formed.

There is another important circumstance. I would not focus all the attention just on Tymoshenko. I think it is a big mistake and a great illusion to believe that if Tymoshenko becomes prime minister, it will be her government. I would still call it a coalition government. Both Our Ukraine and the Socialist Party will try to impose certain restrictions. The coalition agreement, its program, and organizational basis will be a serious obstacle for Tymoshenko. So she is not going to have a monopoly on executive power.”

Kost BONDARENKO, political scientist:

“We usually begin all discussions about a coalition long before a parliamentary majority has been formed and a parliament is convened. These are just preliminary negotiations, and the signed document can only be regarded as a declaration of intent. As one member of the coalition told me privately, so far it seems that only Tymoshenko believes that she will become prime minister and that the coalition will survive.

Another important point: this coalition does not answer the crucial question of Ukrainian politics — the question of unity of Eastern and Western Ukraine. It is utterly inadmissible to ignore the east, for this will only deepen the split that came about in 2004. It looks as though this coalition is going to restore what we saw in early 2005. The very course of events in 2005 showed that something was wrong in that coalition and something had to be changed.

But we never try to change anything; we only try to re-create what has already become unstuck. So I believe there will be many disputes about the coalition, and there are quite a few ambitions and contradictions within it. And I think that owing to these contradictions, the coalition may exist for a short time or it will collapse at the very outset.”

“The shadow cabinet game is very dangerous”

Vadym KARASIOV, director, Institute of Global Strategies”

“I disagree that laws should be invented for the opposition. If a country has a normal democratic procedure, institutions of parliamentary democracy, freedom of speech, an independent media, political pluralism and competition, the opposition will work within the framework of a full-fledged democratic system, and there is no need to think up any legislative privileges. Moreover, such a law may even restrict the opposition.

Shadow cabinets are typical of Britain, where there is a bipartite system, and it is understood that the party in the opposition today will come to power tomorrow. This is why the ruling party shares information with and in fact supports it.

Although this system is interesting from the angle of integrating the Party of Regions and the Donetsk region into the nationwide political system, in Ukraine it will be difficult to implement because the future coalition will be tripartite, not bipartite. It will have enough serious internal contradictions of its own. The involvement of a fourth, albeit shadow, partner may only intensify ideological and personal differences in the parliamentary coalition.

So I would not view this as a new word in jurisprudence and political science but as Our Ukraine’s mechanism of checks and balances against their coalition partners, because then you can use the arguments of a ‘shadow double’ in the person of the Party of Regions to influence policies from inside the coalition by restricting some and encouraging others. Since it is most likely that Tymoshenko will be the prime minister within the framework of the Orange coalition, the shadow cabinet will apparently be used to check the prime minister’s policies.”

Viktor NEBOZHENKO, political scientist:

“The idea of forming a shadow cabinet is very dangerous for the country. When I was Tymoshenko’s consultant in 1998 and suggested the idea of a shadow government to her, it was a form of political spin and a way to muster the opposition forces against the government then in power. It was clear.

But now it is very dangerous to play in a shadow government because the country has split into regional sectors. Zvarych can get on a plane and fly out, but we have to live in this country.”