Waiting for the New Government to Act

The confidence that the public placed in the new leadership during the presidential elections has not been shaken yet and has even received a boost. This is the result of a nationwide sociological survey conducted by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in the first two weeks of February. Presenting the survey results last Friday, KIIS president Valery Khmelko said the question about confidence in the new leadership was not put directly (the sociologist thinks it is too early for this) but indirectly by means of a technique used in social psychology. The 2,040 respondents were asked, “Whom did you vote for in the last round of the presidential elections on December 26?” The result show a higher level of the Ukrainian electorate’s psychological readiness to support the new government’s actions. Firstly, a much larger number of people than those who actually voted said they had cast their vote (89% vs. the official turnout of 77%), out of which 55% and 35% said they had voted for Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych, respectively. This means that the number of supporters of the current president is now 12-15% larger than it was during the elections. This “loyal forgetfulness” was mostly displayed by residents of central Ukraine — 19-23%. In western and southern Ukraine the percentage was 15-20% and 6- 10%, respectively. The situation remains practically unchanged only in the east: Yushchenko’s gain was just a little more than 1%. At the same time, the south and east have seen an increased number (8-10%) of those who now consider it better to position themselves as Yanukovych’s electorate. In Mr. Khmelko’s view, this shows that the situation in those regions remains complicated and that politicians should be keeping a watchful eye on them. Sociologists have also tried to determine the veracity of claims that millions of disabled people and retirees were denied the opportunity to vote. Yanukovych’s team leveled these charges after the rerun and even demanded that the results be invalidated. Research has shown that these voters accounted for 1% on December 26. “Fewer than 400,000 people [voted], not millions, as Yanukovych’s followers have claimed,” Mr. Khmelko noted. The sociologist also pointed out that the number of people who did not take part in the elections because they could not vote at home was three to four times higher in the eastern and southern regions than in the west. “I do not think that the delivery of ballot boxes to homes was much better organized in the western region than in the other ones,” the KIIS president commented. “In all likelihood, this was the deliberate policy of the people who organized voting in those regions.”

The respondents placed special emphasis on the social problems that President Yushchenko must tackle first: increasing the living standard (25.5%), raising pensions and benefits (24%), creating new jobs (24%), and increasing wages (21.5%). Fifteen percent of respondents want corruption and crime to be eradicated, 12% are in favor of revitalizing industry, and 11% want improved medical care and education, without putting them on a totally paid basis. At the same time, only 1.4% of this country’s population considers improving relations with Russia a top-priority issue. Less than 1% of Ukrainians believe that the president should grant official status to the Russian language and pull out the Ukrainian troops from Iraq. Twenty-three percent of those polled are certain and 44% hope that the president will succeed in solving the most important social problems. Seventeen percent of our compatriots are uncertain, while 7% are convinced that the president will not cope with his tasks.