As Uzbekistan Quits, GUUAM Runs Short of One Letter and Spirit

Minister of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan Abdulaziz Komilov has announced that Uzbekistan is quitting GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova), information agencies report. “What is of paramount importance for us at the current stage is the economic transformation of this interstate organization,” Interfax quotes the Uzbek minister as saying. “Experience has confirmed that implementation of such regional projects should be preceded by the solution of a number of domestic and international problems.” Uzbekistan had announced joining the then informal GUAM association in 1999 during the NATO summit in Washington. Ukraine’s top leadership did not look surprised: President Leonid Kuchma said among other things on June 14 that it was of little wonder and that nobody had ever insisted on somebody’s membership. Minister of Foreign Affairs Anatoly Zlenko noted he hoped that from now on GUUAM would be a more closely-knit unit. Neither Ukraine nor Azerbaijan, currently chairing the organization, have been officially notified of Uzbekistan’s departure. It has been officially confirmed that the meeting of GUUAM ministers in Baku is still on schedule. As to Tbilisi’s reaction to Azerbaijan’s departure, “Georgia is ready to discuss with Azerbaijan any GUUAM-related problems that caused Tashkent to quit this association,” Interfax quotes Kakha Sikharulidze, director of the public relations and information department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia, as saying.

The GUUAM history dates to 1997, when Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, and Moldova announced the intention to set up an initially informal association, to be transformed later into quite a formal organization. One of the reasons why the association was forged was to promote the construction of a pipeline to export Caspian oil across Georgia and Ukraine to Western Europe. This route could have formed the basis of the European-Asian transport corridor capable in the future of diverting the oil now flowing across the territory of Russia. The other reason was that neither Georgia, Moldova, nor Azerbaijan, which had unsettled conflicts (Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia, Transnistria, Nagorny Karabakh) were satisfied with Russian policies in the CIS and so they explored the possibility of joining their diplomatic and other efforts. Kyiv, widely regarded as a regional leader, also had some complaints about the Moscow policies at that time.

There has been so much talk since then about reviving the Great Silk Road in the shape of a Eurasian transport corridor, in which were reportedly interested, in theory, not only Uzbekistan but also Kazakhstan and other countries. Incidentally, President Kuchma said on June 14 that GUAM would function primarily as a transport corridor. Many words have been said about the necessity of diverse oil transport routes. Yet, the corridor was never established. The export route has been established on one side only because the finally finished Odesa-Brody pipeline has not yet been continued on the territory of Poland: negotiations are still ongoing about the necessity of this construction, still to be set up as an international consortium to deal with the transport of oil to still only potential customers. Meanwhile, already operational and under construction are, respectively, the Baku-Novorossiysk and Baku-Ceyhan oil pipelines, Bulgaria and Rumania are also offering their oil transit services. All this makes experts ask themselves: do the Caspian fields really produce enough oil to fill the existing and future pipelines?

The GUUAM organization was formalized at last year’s Yalta summit that had been postponed more than once. As a result, it was announced that the organization pursues primarily economic goals and cannot be directed against any other country, and always keeps its door open. Meanwhile, the free trade agreement, an indispensable document widely regarded as the organization’s cementing idea, has not yet been signed. Moreover, Uzbekistan reportedly opposed this idea, with its representatives claiming that the legislation of the member states was not prepared for this step. In addition, with only Moldova and Georgia being members of the World Trade Organization, this could also provoke a certain conflict between the intent and reality. Diplomatic sources also claim that Uzbekistan has made an effort to foil the GUUAM economic forum to be held in Tashkent. There were also other tendencies that the diplomats think demonstrated Tashkent’s less than great interest. In addition, the September 11 events and the beginning of the antiterrorist operation brought to light obvious changes in the relations between Uzbekistan and the US. Uzbekistan, no longer accused of human rights abuse, allowed the antiterrorist coalition to set up a temporary base on its territory, and most probably Tashkent is far more interested in maintaining the current level of relations with Washington than in establishing GUUAM which has in fact remained dormant and promises no immediate gains. With Russia too Tashkent is now building a totally different relationship than even a year ago.

When Communist President Vladimir Voronin came to power in Moldova, he began to speak about the benefits of Moldova joining the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Community. Like Ukraine, Moldova was granted the status of observer in this organization. President Leonid Kuchma promised recently that Kyiv might go even further. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Vasile Tarlev of Moldova said on June 14 in Kyiv that Moldova’s departure from GUUAM is not yet on the agenda. Azerbaijan, the current chair of GUUAM, tries to find out what happened because Baku has so far received no official information from Tashkent.

Georgia has remained the greatest enthusiast of GUUAM. From the very outset, Tbilisi suggested laying a solid political component, first of all, in the field of security, in the organization’s foundation, which others lacked enthusiasm for. But even Tedo Dzhaparidze, Secretary of the Security Council of Georgia, did not rule out in a recent interview with The Day ( see page 3) that the organization might die if it did not have an interest common for all.

An informed Ukrainian expert close to decision-making circles thinks that GUUAM can be considered doomed unless there is a common idea that could be of interest for all the member states, unless there is a solid economic basis (all the member states are de facto poor), and unless Western capital is seriously interested in this organization. However, experts also note that the idea of establishing a fundamentally new regional organization, interesting and promising as it is, needs a good basis.

Thus it is too early to sound the death knell for GUUAM. The organization still has some hopes. The problem, as always, is how to realize them.

COMMENT

Anatoly ZLENKO, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine:

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has received tentative information that Uzbekistan “does not consider it reasonable” to take part in some GUUAM-sponsored actions. Although we have not yet received an official message to this effect, I must note that Uzbekistan’s decision is neither unexpected nor extraordinary. Every state is free to choose the form of its participation in one organization or another. Ukraine respects the choice of Uzbekistan. GUUAM was open from the very outset to all those who share the goals and principles enshrined in the GUUAM Charter. Ukraine is convinced that the departure of Uzbekistan from GUUAM will neither affect the efficacy of this organization nor stall the process of further cooperation between its members. Tashkent has been lately taking a pronouncedly restrained attitude to most intentions of the other GUUAM member states. Therefore, today we have every reason to hope that GUAM will become more closely knit and work more actively to achieve the goals set in the organization’s statute because it will no longer be constrained by the passivity of some member states. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, as well as our counterparts in other GUAM member states, is actively preparing for the next foreign minister level session. The session is scheduled to finalize the documents to be signed by leaders of the GUAM member states and to fix a concrete date for this organization’s summit in Ukraine.”