Farewell to a Kind Uncle

Already the first pronouncements of the new American president make it possible to come to a simple conclusion: his Russian policy will be different from his predecessor’s. And different to the extent that the Kremlin has to understand that either it carries out real reforms or the current regime will come to an end, a regular legitimate end, which can be compared to the legitimate termination of the Soviet regime at a time when the Americans themselves did not want it.

In his eastern policy the new Bush will be not the old Bush, but a Reagan. His father’s boss did not know much about Russia, but he trusted his advisors who maintained that Carter’s attempts to reach understanding with Moscow were misinterpreted not as proof of our strength but as proof of fear. We, however, are not afraid. We have the power, not they. And this is how we have to talk to them.

The advisors to Bush and first of all Condoleesa Rice, who now will be responsible for national defense in the new administration, also think that in Moscow they interpreted the loans of the last decade not as an evidence of a generous wish to help build a democratic system and market economy, but as a proof of American stupidity. Look how we fooled and got money out of them! And we still consider ourselves a superpower, we don’t need their largesse: we’ll build for ourselves what suits us best. Is this not how the Soviet nomenclature thinks? Now it calls itself Russian, but it did not get rid of its essence, the essence of a stratum that is far from being willing to work for society but is ready for any kind of ideological demagogy, even for little war, in order to feed His Majesty the Pocket.

Now everything will be different. Illusions about the renewal of the Russian (read: Soviet) sphere of influence, flirting with marginalia, attempts to present itself as a super-duper-power in the short period while it can hide its poverty behind its oil. Now all that will receive a precise, sharp, and strategically adjusted Reagan-style response. And will not get money. Time to go to work, Mr. Putin.

But it is possible to save face, stop the war, begin real economic changes, and put down corrupt officials. There are many things one can do. Or he can leave the Kremlin even before his term is over. A young successor will save face.

All this pertains to us as well. Not only because they will also not give us money, but also because all our advances to Russia now will be regarded not as child’s play, but as the inability to choose real points of reference and attempts to support a sick neighbor in her delusions. In the new American perspective, Moscow politicians have to live in Moscow. And not in Kyiv or Minsk.

And we will soon feel that this is no joke.