Triumph of Hopelessness

St. Petersburg Governor Vladimir Yakovlev has won a landslide victory in the mayoral elections in Russia’s second capital: 73% of the electorate cast their votes for him, while his closest rival, Yabloko Party representative Igor Artemiev, supported by all democratic organizations of the city noted for its freedom-loving traditions, managed to poll only 14%. Mr. Yakovlev’s result is better than that gained by Vladimir Putin in the presidential elections. Moreover, in previous elections to the post, popular mayor Anatoly Sobchak ceded the office to Mr. Yakovlev, his former first deputy, and Mr. Yakovlev won.

At first glance, it is difficult to explain the causes of this victory. I visited St. Petersburg a few weeks before the elections: despite the ice hockey championship which was to be the main event of Mr. Yakovlev’s election campaign but, instead, ended in a humiliating fiasco of the Russian national team and despite the Russian-Japanese summit, the city, which had apparently been preparing for this and did not look to advantage. Peter’s city has been in the Russian media’s focus recently in connection with the new president’s Leningrad origins or a new resounding assassination. Is that all? That’s all. The governor of a city like this was expected to lose or win by miracle, but no one dared to predict this kind of triumph.

But, on the other hand, who was Mr. Yakovlev to have lost to? Mr. Putin convinced Sergei Stepashin, quite a popular politician in the city, to bow out in favor of Valentina Matviyenko. She had had fewer chances to defeat Mr. Yakovlev, but Mr. Putin forced her, too, to quit the gubernatorial race just a few weeks before the elections. This left Mr. Yakovlev without any serious rivals. Mr. Artemiev is a well-known figure in the city, but he was hardly a real contender for the office of governor. The Kremlin knew this and so it allowed, in the last moment, the pro-presidential Unity to join the parties that supported him.

The situation won’t change, but it will fray the governor’s nerves a bit. However, it was the support of Mr. Artemiev by Unity that allowed Western observers to make a conclusion about the triumph of Mr. Putin’s opponent.

Western conclusions, however, hold no water in the East. Mr. Yakovlev is not Mr. Putin’s opponent; he is from the same party of power, and he is well aware that one can win by a landslide in the post-Soviet space only when one has no real alternative or when one fights hopelessness or a shadow: Boris Yeltsin versus Ziuganov, the referendums of Nursultan Nazarbayev or Islam Karimov, Mr. Putin, or Mr. Yakovlev versus... almost nobody. Oh, how sweet tastes this well-orchestrated bitter victory!