Formula of Government and Opposition

Myroslav POPOVYCH, philosopher, corresponding member of the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences :

In conditions of deep economic crisis, anyone could become the next President except those still in power. I can’t think of any democratic countries where the President or political force bringing about a grave economic crisis would be given another chance in office. In the United States, a presidential candidate promising to raise taxes as a temporary inconvenience will not be elected. What happened in Ukraine shows that our people is singularly patient and with a rather high general educational level.

Very characteristically, we received a new geography in the course of the elections. Farming territories like Poltava and Vinnytsia oblasts proved the Reddest. This is the most important lesson for the current regime to learn, because if they conducted a more consistent policy in the countryside there would be no Red Peril, so extensively capitalized upon by that same regime.

A third point, which I consider extremely important, is that the executive led by the current President proved the only real opponent of the Communists. And so a large part of the electorate voted for them. On the other hand, there is a threat of authoritarian rule. Not because Leonid Kuchma is authoritarian. His personal traits are not the point. When a state system exists in a political vacuum — and I consider that neither the Right nor Left constitutes a serious political force — all political parties can play the role of public support of the President and his administration. This is too dangerous. We may find ourselves in a situation like those with all the young interbellum democracies. We could lose what few democratic characteristics we have. Generally speaking, democracy is a fragile and perishable product.

As for the opposition, we may need a clearly outlined and influential Right wing, and it does not have to be in opposition, not necessarily. The Left is also a possibility (and I mean genuine Leftists, not all those ailing pensioners). Each of these forces must have its own ideology, criticizing the President and his entourage where and whenever it deems necessary, and likewise support him. However, to do so they must each turn into an independent political force. The Presidential Administration cannot be such a force. If it becomes a political force this will be very dangerous, yet we have vested in it all the functions of a political party. Hence, we should concentrate not on creating an opposition but on creating honest political forces capable of using their heads. As it is, our politics is just one petty intrigue; real politics is possible only where there is big-time intriguing.

Mykola TOMENKO, Candidate of Science in history, Director of the Institute for Politics :

I think that for the next couple of months our political life will be marked by two dominants: posts and money, with money playing the leading role, because pecuniary potentialities will determine the structures of Parliament and the future coalition government. As for the latter, posts will also be important factors.

There is yet another dominant, a subjective one. The degree of involvement of all those that helped Leonid Kuchma get the second term. Their ratio in the victorious process will have to be determined.

I think that for the time being all this is of little interest to the Ukrainian people. And this will last for about three months, until new or old-new cadres are selected.

The Day: What are the prospects of the Left opposition?

M. T.: Provisionally speaking, we have three Left leaders. Symonenko will continue as a civilized political opposition, to use the President’s expression. This is the most ideal position for Mr. Kuchma, meaning that Petro Symonenko will have the best financial and political-organizational status, as is the case throughout the democratic world.

Oleksandr Moroz will look for a place in the Social Democratic, Left Center niche, claiming the status of a broader political-ideological, “people’s” opposition.

Natalia Vitrenko, logically, should join the parliamentary majority. If that involvement ratio were to be judged on a ten-point scale, I would give her ten points. She did more for the President’s victory than anyone else. Winners should be in the parliamentary majority and a coalition government. Naturally, if they persist in portraying her as the President’s opponent, no one will believe it. For this reason, she should abandon her pseudo-Left stand and head right.