Will Our Tanks Reach Greece?

Greece's Defense Minister was in Ukraine on an official visit lasting until August 31. He held talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksandr Kuzmuk and other government officials. The two sides are reported to have discussed deepening their bilateral military, military- political, and military-technical cooperation. The latter may be considered by far the most important for Kyiv. Ukraine hopes to increase its arms business with Greece, which plans to spend about $10 billion to buy weapons.

The three-day stay in Ukraine of the Greek minister of defense Apostolos- Aphonasios Tsokhadzopoulos resulted in the signing of an agreement on military-and-technical cooperation between Ukraine and Greece. This step has already long been on the agenda. What is more, the two sides already know how to implement it in practical terms even in the nearest future.

Ukraine is now ready, together with Russia, to supply Greece with several Zubr-type surface-effect landing ships as well as An-32 fire-extinguishing aircraft. But it is known that Greece's «contract of a century» will be the purchase of 250 new tanks under a five year plan to re-equip its national armed forces' armor units. Late last year, the Ukrainian T-84, the American M-1 Abrams, the Russian T-80U, the German Leopard-2, the French Leclerc, and the British Challenger-2 were tested for two months at the Liochoro range, demonstrating their capabilities to the Greek military.

Mr. Tsochadzopoulos arrived in Kyiv just on the eve of the announcement of the country winning this tank tender. The Greek minister may have shared this piece of news with his Ukrainian counterpart in a one-on-one conversation. But, to make preliminary conclusions, it is worth remembering that, on the one hand, Greece was last year the third largest importer of US arms. On the other hand, Germany is an old tank partner of Athens. Leopard tanks are some of the most advanced in the Greek army which first received 77 machines of this type in 1993. And this year Germany has dispatched to Greece the first consignment of 170 used Leopards earlier promised to Athens.

Of course, the reliability of old ties plays by far the most important role in the selection of Greece's tank partners under the new contract. At the same time, analysts claim that the highest chances for success will be gained by those foreign companies which will manage to involve in the project the Greek ELVO arms-manufacturing company or even buy the latter. Ukraine cannot afford this.

As a Ukrainian arms business representative said, «If we fail with our tanks in Greece, it might just be for the best. No one knows what kind or relations we would have with Turkey should we succeed.» Turkey and Greece despite their being NATO allies have more than once been on the brink of war, particularly because of the Cyprus problem. Tank supplies to Greece could jeopardize Kyiv's chances for an even juicier contract: participation in the joint production of a thousand tanks for Turkey. But the point is the announcement of the Turkish tender's terms and conditions is repeatedly postponed.

After seven countries demonstrated the capabilities of their tanks on the Greece's Litochoro proving ground late last year, the banks are now coming in. According to the Greek Minister of Defense, weapons from Ukraine, Russia, Germany, the US, France, and Britain quite satisfy the technical requirements of the Greek military. However, everything will now depend on the extent to which the competing countries can make their proposals tempting enough, both in the economic and, in a sense, military and political sense.

Asked if Athens is worried by Ukraine offering its tanks both to Greece and such a not-so-simple a neighbor as Turkey, Mr. Tsokhadzopoulos said: «No problem. Because Great Britain and France also offer their tanks both to Greece and Turkey.» As is known, Ankara wants to reinforce its army with a thousand of the most advanced tanks.

Ukrainian Minister of Defense Oleksandr Kuzmuk in turn assessed without much detail Kyiv's chances to become the supplier of main battle tanks to two countries at the same time: «It is too early to speak today of a probable win. All I can say is that we are working hard to make our products adaptable to any conditions.»

Thus it remains unclear if Ukraine will make its tank breakthrough into Greece and Turkey. But Kyiv and Athens must complete all formalities within the next two months for the delivery to Greece of two $100-million Zubr- type hydrofoil landing craft.