Expert Commentary 

Is there anything politically topical about Ukrainian-Russian-Belarusian rapprochement? How is this affected by electorate attitudes? Some of The Day's experts offer commentary.

  Serhiy MAKEYEV, Institute of Sociology, Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences,
Ph.D. in sociology:
 
According to the Institute's and Democratic Initiatives Foundation's findings, about half the Ukrainian populace are Russia-oriented to some degree; the other half harbors polarized views. Ukraine's geopolitical position begets this gap between the West and Russia, hence the tremendous temptation for politicians to make the most of that half of the electorate, primarily for their own selfish ends. A very understandable political technique, yet politicians rely on such sentiments only for a certain very transitory period: I mean the elections, after which they are once again free to act as they think fit. Bearing this in mind, one ought to approach the political expediency of this union from the standpoint of certain political figures. To begin with, integration with Russia before the presidential elections is a good opportunity to keep some of the voters on a short leash. Another logical aspect about the Ukrainian Speaker's stand is redistributing power, something obviously borrowed from the Russian experience, offering a choice between a presidential-parliamentary and parliamentary-presidential republics. Finally, I think that this union idea is stillborn, but all politicians tend to behave symbolically and in this sense the attire Speaker Tkachenko wore while visiting Belarus was apparently from the political wardrobe.

  Oleksandr YAREMENKO, Director, Ukrainian Institute for Social Research, Candidate of Science in economics:
 
I think that Speaker Tkachenko's trips to Russia and Belarus were motivated by purely political ambitions. Russian-Belarusian-Ukrainian economic integration is primarily a political issue. Our data says the idea of Slavic rapprochement within CIS is favored by over half the Ukrainian people. At the same time, most Ukrainian residents oppose the idea of going back to the Soviet Union or losing Ukrainian independence. As for supporting economic integration with Russia and Belarus, while maintaining independence, this is an ephemeral concept basically stemming from a mass craving for improvements in living standards.

  Mykhailo TOMENKO, Director, Institute of Politics, Candidate of Science in history:

I think it would politically timely to indicate the socioeconomic status Belarus has come to. This is a good indicator of how effective the neo-socialist option of development adopted by its leadership really is. The importance of the Ukrainian Speaker's visit there was that he dreams of becoming another Ukrainian "papa" like "batska" Lukashenka. In terms of building his image his visit and talks with the Belarusian President are also quite timely. Finally, his statements serve as yet another reason for the Ukrainian President's team and all those believing they won the Speaker saga to think again about their own political futures. It is a signal to all those political forces still sentimental about Oleksandr Tkachenko's geopolitical views, considering him their ally when choosing between European and Eurasian paths of further progress. Obviously, the Ukrainian Speaker is able to play his own game, and his views, mildly speaking, are some distance from those of any civilized European politician.