ALLIES OR FELLOW TRAVELERS?

At the previous CIS summit in Chisinau (Moldova), the Uzbek President consistently opposed the idea of multilevel integration that would help create a «preferential economic treatment» (based on political preferences, as evidenced by Aleksandr Lukashenko’s regime, so generously sponsored by Moscow. Later, some of those present testified that the Ukrainian President was among those supporting Mr. Karimov. In fact, this support proved so effective that a chagrined Belarus leader would refer to Messrs. Kuchma and Karimov as his major opponents.

The Uzbek President will appear at the March summit in Moscow being rather well equipped to prove the correctness of his Chisinau stand. The latest forum of the quadrilateral Customs Union member states showed beyond reasonable doubt that Moscow and Minsk had agreed in principle on Aleksandr Lukashenko’s model of that «integration,» and that Nursultan Nazarbayev did not stand much chance trying to get the main EU principles accepted as its foundations.

At the same time, the number of Moscow’s rich and famous willing to finance the Lukashenko regime is on the downward curve, against which background a normal integration process is gaining momentum, without any «elder brothers,» crocodile tears over the lost empire, missionary complexes and ambitions, or the reciprocally hazardous practice of being parasitic on someone else’s raw materials (e.g., the previous summit in Ashgabad, GUAM...). In a word, Islam Karimov and Boris Yeltsin will have plenty to talk about in March.

Now who will back the Uzbek President? Will the Ukrainian stand remain as realistic as it was in Chisinau? Or maybe Mr. Kuchma, pressed by domestic problems or driven by heartfelt dialogues with Mr. Yeltsin, will remain silent this time? We all witnessed the collapse of the «presidential club» in the early months of Mr. Kuchma’s presidency, when certain politicians, relying on unrealistic models of post-Soviet integration, told Moscow on more than once occasion that the CIS was an apt model of divorce, rather than a way to build another «unbreakable» union. That time Ukraine signed no documents (God forbid!), but even if it did, it just wouldn’t work. But when your partners feign great integration enthusiasm keeping silent is not the best policy. Chisinau showed just how effective the truth can be.

Losing allies again, especially President Karimov, a very respected politician in his region, is too sad even to contemplate. Elections will come and go, but Uzbekistan and Ukraine will remain. Ukraine does not border on Uzbekistan. It borders on Russia. Of course, we must be good neighbors, but we need allies, and alliance means helping one another. Good allies are friends, not fellow travelers.