Ukraine is advised to give pipeline to Gazprom

By the efforts of its President Aliaksandr Lukashenka, Belarus is again becoming a country of free, but not disinterested, advice [a play on words: “advice” is consonant with “Soviet” and “council” in Ukrainian – “rada.” – Ed.]. Last Wednesday, addressing members of the CIS, the Baltic States, and Georgia Editors-in-Chief Club, the Belarusian “Daddy” chose to help Ukraine be drawn into the Customs Union. In his opinion, Ukraine will only benefit from cooperating with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan because the signing of Single Economic Space documents will eliminate the problem of economic pressure. “We would love our sweet little sister Ukraine to be with us. Please take steps, even small steps, but do some,” Lukashenka entreated Ukrainian journalists and said reassuringly that Ukraine would not lose if it sold its gas transportation system (GTS) to Gazprom “because you’ll be able to make a deal with Russia after this.”

This kind of advice can only be given to those who want to listen to it. Most of the Ukrainians are not prepared for such a retreat. Even the old-new Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said during his Norway visit that Kyiv is disappointed that the European Union shows no interest in modernizing the Ukrainian GTS. It looks like the Ukrainian political compass is more and more pointing to the East. Tellingly, Ukrainian West-East vacillations have not remained unnoticed in Europe. But the European Union still confirmed the other day its readiness to help Ukraine upgrade its GTS. Is this perhaps a belated decision and to what extent is it realistic if we take into account that European countries have in fact backed Russia’s efforts to bypass Ukraine with its gas “streams”?

Now that the South Stream has begun to be built, the Russian Ambassador to Kyiv, Mikhail Zurabov, looks like a winner and, at the same time, sounds like a mentor. He told Ukrainians the other day about the essence and prospects of the protracted Ukrainian-Russian negotiations and their next round to be held on December 18. “If this meeting does take place on the 18th, while we are still working on its agenda and content, it will only be held if we really have something to agree upon,” Zurabov told journalists. “Therefore, this meeting on December 18 and the very fact of President Viktor Yanukovych’s visit will mean that we have come much closer to being able to make practical deals. And this visit will be organized in such a way that the two parties could not only mark this deal with a handshake, but also sign documents. I mean an agreement that also concerns the energy sector.” Do the ambassador’s words mean that Ukraine will follow, step by step, Lukashenka’s advice and will finally be forced to give up its pipeline?

Zurabov seems to be encouraging Ukraine’s Minister for Energy and Fuel, Yurii Boiko, and Russian Gazprom boss Alexei Miller. According to Gazprom’s information department, they were talking at the moment… no, not about revising the unfair gas contracts or a new price for Russian gas, but about “long-term partnership in the gas sector,” thus laying the groundwork for the signing of some serious agreements. Besides, they were also discussing such a “trifle” as “ensuring a trouble-free transit of Russian gas across the territory of Ukraine to European consumers in the coming winter, with due account of gas reserves in Ukraine’s underground storages.” As a proverb says, “chickens come home to roost” because it is not so easy to do without the Ukrainian GTS.

One more connoisseur of Russian gas court secrets and Ukraine’s longtime “advisor,” Konstantin Simonov, director general of Russia’s National Energy Security Foundation, also seems to be speaking the same. He reproaches Kyiv for a tough negotiating stance: “Instead of speeding up the talks on the pipeline and giving up a certain part of it – and there are no other options here, – Ukraine has allowed itself to be driven into a deadlock and nobody will let it out just like this.” Let us explain it: Simonov demands that, in exchange for being let out of the gas deadlock and, therefore, having the South Stream construction discontinued, Ukraine should give Russia the “pipe,” i.e., its GTS. Once we give in to all these entreaties and advice, we will have neither the pipeline to deliver gas to Ukrainian consumers nor the transit gas. Enormous money has already been invested in the Nord and South Streams, and they (the steams and the money) mean everything for Putin’s Russia. Because of this, Ukraine is standing in the corner as if punished for its obstinacy. But, as a thinker said, hardships make a man stronger and a country closer-knitted. If our people muster their brains and brawn in a fist, they will manage to break loose from the gas noose.