Managed elections

Only eight candidates will participate in the presidential race in Iran scheduled for June 14. The total number of potential candidates for the post of the president was 686. Iran’s Guardian Council of the Constitution approved the following candidates for the presidential elections: Iran’s representative for nuclear program talks Saeed Jalili, his predecessor Hassan Rouhani, former head of the Foreign Ministry Ali-Akbar Velayati, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, former head of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Mohsen Rezaee, former Speaker Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, and former telecommunication minister Mohammad Gharazi. As The Day has already reported, former president of Iran Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei – protege of the current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were not allowed to participate in the election. The decision made by the Guardian Council is final and not subject to appeal.

The Day asked Executive Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies Oleksandr BOHOMOLOV to comment on the beginning of the presidential campaign in Iran and what does the world and Ukraine expect from the results of these elections.

“Now is the time of another cycle of presidential elections and, as we all know, in 2009 the elections turned into a revolution that failed, but at the same time the one that shook the Iranian political system. Currently, the Iranian authorities are trying to avoid similar situation. This actually explains the choice of candidates for the post of the president made recently.

“Not everyone can become a president in Iran. In this country there is, in fact, a system of dual power. On the one hand, there is, allegedly, a political system similar to those of many democratic countries. It means that there is parliament and the president elected by allegedly free elections. But above it all there is religions establishment that implements the principle of government of Islamic lawyers and scientists founded by the father of Islamic revolution. This establishment actually defines the parameters of all political forces. There is the Higher Constitutional Council, which determines who can be the possible candidates to participate in the presidential race. Now, eight candidates have been approved, all of them are, in fact, proteges of the spiritual leader Ali Khamenei. The candidates who could be serious opponents and represent some alternative or opposite views were not included in this list. An example of this is the refusal to register Ahmadinejad’s assistant Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei and 78-year-old former liberal president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

“This will result in that the elections will be controlled by the religious establishment. On the other hand, it is expected that Ahmadinejad, who was very loyal to the religious establishment, but in his second term got into a conflict with Khamenei, trying to increase his power, won’t go away easily. He can form a movement centered around his figure that will become kind of conservative opposition and will somehow interfere with the plans of the religious elite, which is rather expecting things to go smooth.”

What are the actual requirements for the candidates – loyalty?

“Those who choose candidates want them not to constitute a problem to the religious establishment. Until 2009 popularity of candidates among the people was also a factor. Of course, candidates must meet the religious and moral parameters since the entire system is set up for it. This is the outer frame. But when it comes to the struggle for power, there are certain groups who are trying to promote their candidates. And this Guardian Council is an extension of the position of the spiritual leader. It does not suggest any alternative, but provides a democratic form to the actual implementation of interests and position of the spiritual leader, who is the most important person in the country.

“While before 2009 the authorities permitted some looseness – swing between liberal and less liberal approaches, now it’s got a rather strict approach and it is still not clear what will come of it. Typically, such approach as turning of the screw only postpones the problem and the tension arises later. The situation in Iran is not simple due to the economic blockade and regional tension, and the Shiite-Sunni war.”

Many Western experts think that the Iranian government stakes on Iran’s representative at the nuclear program talks Saeed Jalili. What do you think about this?

“At this point it does not matter who will win the election because there is no fundamental alternative. You can pick as many candidates as you please – two or eight, but they will have approximately the same views. And at this point it makes no difference which one of them becomes the president. The choice has been already made, in fact. Khamenei decided that this time the Iranian people will be allowed to choose from the candidates, all of whom actually stand on the positions of the conservative religious establishment. Go ahead and make your choice, they will still be all black.

“What concerns the candidacy of Jalili specifically, in the current circumstances, it would be wise for Iran to soften its position especially regarding the conflicts with the West. However, only time will show if this is going to happen. The West intends to hold talks with Iran, because the alternative to this is only war. No one in the West, after the experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, does not want war. And the election of the new president of Iran can become a good reason for the resumption of talks, however, it is not entirely predictable whether those talks will be effective.”

Is it important for Ukraine who will be the next president of Iran?

“From the strategic perspective we would be interested in peaceful development of Iran and that the conflict that now exists between Iran and the world would be settled. This would open up new opportunities for the development of Iran’s energy sector. Ukraine is an energy-dependent state and it is interested in the greatest possible freedom in this market. The tension around Iran excludes this country as a valuable link in the gas market. Ukraine is very interested in this aspect, since it means finding new alternatives for receiving energy supply. We get gas only from Russia, that’s why Iran is an important part of the equation in the energy sector. This just might balance the situation.”