Signing Agreement: end of beginning

Ukraineand the European Union have high expectations of the Eastern Partnership summit to be held in Vilnius toward the end of November. Brussels and Kyiv hope the summit will end in the signing of the Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement between Ukraine and the EU. However, neither side is absolutely sure about such outcome. What are the obstacles? What should be done to make this summit succeed? What are the reasons behind the civilizational crisis within the EU and ways to overcome it? More on this in the following interview Jan Tombinski, head of the EU delegation to Ukraine, gave The Day and students of the 11th Summer School of Journalism.

HAVING SOVEREIGN UKRAINE, ONE STILL HAS TO MAKE UKRAINIANS

Larysa IVSHYNA: “You must have read about the Strategic Foreign Policy Group, the non-governmental Initiative to formulate strategic proposals and decisions in Ukraine’s foreign policy, involving civil society and the media. This is a good and encouraging sign, even if a belated move. It is generally agreed that we want not only some of our politicians, but the entire civil society, every citizen, to make perfectly clear that they want the Association Agreement and are prepared to exert considerable efforts to make it a reality; that they are aware that this isn’t going to be a big cake but the beginning of work. We are gathered here to ask you how best to do this work.”

Olesia YAREMCHUK: Does the EU realize the complexity of the situation with Ukraine? On the one hand, there are many tasks (EU requirements) that remain to be fulfilled before the Vilnius summit. On the other hand, there is the Russian delegation, led by Putin, visiting Ukraine. They will apparently try to talk Yanukovych into joining the Customs Union.

Jan TOMBINSKI: “Let me start by thanking you for inviting me to The Day’s editorial office. As for your question, my answer will be more complicated. I’m not going to answer it as a Polish diplomat. The mirror must be turned. What’s on the agenda now is not for everyone in Europe to know about Ukraine as some special country. The situation in every European country is quite complicated these days, so the points in question between Ukraine and the EU are confidence and firm belief that it is a serious and irreversible process; that the whole thing is not only about the signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU. Signing it would be the end of the beginning, for this would be followed by a very complicated process of reforms in Ukraine. To make these reforms and open up the markets, one has to be sure about the existing system. This is a long-term process.

“You can see what’s happening in the European countries. They also want to know who will be investing in political capital to have a mandate to sign the Association Agreement with Ukraine, considering their difficult domestic situations, economic, political, and financial problems. How many European governments have fallen since the crisis in 2009? How many difficult problems did they have? What arguments could have been used to persuade them that the parliamentary elections in Ukraine could not be completed in October 2012? Is this a complicated problem? This is a purely political issue. I find it very difficult to discuss the reasons behind Ukraine’s failure to end the elections that took place last October with European politicians. These politicians find it very difficult to understand them.”

O.Ya.: How do you assess the efforts Ukrainian society is making, in particular the formation of the Foreign Policy Strategic Group by Volodymyr Nalyvaichenko (UDAR party member), aimed at assisting European integration?

Ja.T.: “These efforts deserve every praise. Every Ukrainian citizen, the whole of society should be provided with arguments and an opportunity to debate them. I have traveled across Ukraine over the past three months, including Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Odesa, and Simferopol. My first impression was that Ukrainians don’t know about themselves. There is neither the structure nor opportunity of a Ukrainian dialog in Ukraine, so people in Sumy would know what people in Uzhhorod are thinking about; so that people in Vinnytsia would know about the views of people in Chernihiv; so that Ukrainians in Lutsk would know about the feelings of Ukrainians in Luhansk. This is your general problem. You have a historic, fantastic period of more than 20 years of independence in Ukraine. You were born in sovereign Ukraine, but you still have to make Ukrainians with common ideas about the future of their country. It is very important for you to think in terms of my region, my city, my village, my business, rather than in other terms that are sometimes required in Ukraine. Singing songs is very important, but that’s not all.”

L.I.: “I believe we are aware of this. Garibaldi said that now that they had Italy, they still had to make Italians. That’s the process we all are witnessing. I think the sense of social responsibility of the owners of television channels can help this process. At a recent forum, Adam Michnik described the kind of journalism a young democracy should have, what the journalists should discuss with their readers. We can’t speak on behalf of all journalists, but we want to discuss these topics with our readers, and that’s what our young journalists have in mind.”

EU REQUIREMENTS MEAN TO IMPROVE THE SITUATION IN UKRAINE

Solomia LUKOVETSKA, Taras Shevchenko National University, Kyiv: Does Europe realize the importance of signing the Association Agreement with Ukraine? Is Europe aware of the economic consequences of not signing it?

Ja.T.: “This importance was clear back in 2007 when Ukraine and the EU started talks on the drawing up and signing of the Association Agreement. The EU has done everything it had to do. The European Commission has formally adopted the text and the European countries are preparing the mandate to sign the agreement in Vilnius. We are, of course, aware of the purpose of the Association Agreement. This process is very important for rapprochement between Ukraine and the EU. Let me point out, however, that the EU does not mean just a free trade area. It is a union, an organization where emphasis is placed on democracy. A closer look at the EU requirements toward Ukraine – after fulfilling which the Association Agreement becomes possible – shows that they mean to improve the situation in Ukraine, not in the EU. They are aimed at ensuring democracy, organizing elections in a manner that would preclude any questions about falsification or apolitical influence on their outcome, so that each Ukrainian voter would be sure that his ballot is important. This is number one. Number two is the legal system. This is an acute topic for all who live in Ukraine. This isn’t an acute topic for a European citizen who lives in Spain, Italy or Poland. This is a problem for Ukrainian citizens who must be sure about the rule of law and human rights. Unless these questions are answered, I don’t see how the Association Agreement will be signed. All procedures have been completed on the European side, so now the responsibility is on the Ukrainian side, your government, parliament, and the Ukrainian political elite. The point is that the Association Agreement will make life better in Ukraine, but not in the European countries.”

S.L.: Isn’t Europe worried about Ukraine joining the Customs Union in case the Association Agreement fails?

Ja.T.: “That’s a question for Ukraine. We won’t be responsible, not in London, Berlin, Warsaw or Rome. Ukrainian politicians will be responsible. The EU operates very transparently. All terms and conditions are generally known. The EU expects Ukraine to reciprocate.”

THE KEY TO EUROPEAN MARKETS IS MODERNIZATION AND COMPETITIVENESS

O.Ya.: Nicholas Kaufmann wrote in Eurasia Review that if the EU backs out now, there is no question that Ukraine will be pushed under Putin’s thumb: “All in all, an Association Agreement would help the country along the rocky path towards democracy and away from the specter of Sovietism.” Does the EU agree with him?

Ja.T.: “Forecasting in politics is easier said than done. In answer to your question about what will happen if the Association Agreement isn’t signed, I can simply say that all the risks have been described. There is no vacuum in politics. There are also certain opinions, but everything is very transparent.

“As for Sovietism, I hope there will be no other Soviet Union after it collapsed in 1991. Well, the problem is modernization. What does Ukraine need? When studying political statements made by Ukrainians, I could see that people understand the European Union as a free trade area, and that Ukraine has to choose between various markets, between the Customs Union and the European Union. I think that’s because people don’t know what the EU is all about. The European, Russian, Chinese, and Asian markets are an objective reality. You won’t find any other markets. The problem with Ukraine is accessing these markets, finding the key to open them up for Ukrainian products. This key is modernization and competitiveness. That’s the question Ukrainian politicians and society must answer. Will the Customs Union be more effective in upgrading the Ukrainian economy and helping Ukrainian goods find a way to the world market? Or maybe modernization and competitiveness on the European markets will open up the world market for Ukraine?”

Iryna MALIUK, Ivan Franko National University, Lviv: Russia is likely to try to torpedo the Association Agreement and thus shut the door to Europe for Ukraine. Does the EU see this threat on the part of Russia? Does it have any means of counterbalancing Moscow’s pressure, considering that Moscow makes no secret of its desire to have Ukraine as a member of the Customs Union?

Ja.T.: “I do not represent Russia and I’m not going to try to guess what will happen if and when, what kind of scenario will be played out. I think it’s not worth exerting so much energy pondering any possible negative scenarios. One of my observations in Ukraine is that all Ukrainians are expecting a catastrophe, trying to figure out what to do when it occurs. It is necessary to work harder and carry out one’s program instead of worrying about others’ opinions and then worrying about what road Ukraine should embark upon to correspond to the views and programs of other countries. It is necessary to concentrate on fulfilling one’s own program. European integration is laid down in Ukrainian legislation and reaffirmed by your President, whose stand was supported by 90 percent of the Verkhovna Rada MPs.

“Why wait for disaster? Why worry about what will happen if we don’t do what we should do? That won’t be a catastrophe. It is necessary to work more and invest in your program. Time is of the essence in politics and history, so we must make the best of the time given us by history. Ukraine is in such a situation and it can make its choice. If we don’t implement our program, someone else will. It’s best to carry out one’s program than worry about disaster and what will happen afterward.”

Oleksii KOZIUK, Drahomanov National Pedagogical University: The Economist carried an article entitled “The Eurasian tug-of-war” to the effect that Ukraine is hesitating to choose between Russia and Europe. What do you think? You’ve said that European integration is laid down in Ukrainian legislation.

Ja.T.: “Yes, it is. There is an action plan for the Ukrainian government. It’s all in black and white. The European Union, however, is an organization for which implementation comes first, not declarations. I’ve heard lots of declarations in some ten months I’ve spent in Ukraine. A declaration is a very cheap coin. Work and implementation are the most important things. If there is a strategy, it has to be implemented.

“As for Ukraine’s hesitation, one ought to analyze the reasons behind it. I think there is a simple explanation: lack of national development strategy. You have to work out a strategy that shows the way to improve the situation for those who see their future in immigration, who run away from Ukraine with their money, and for those who are not investing in Ukraine. If you had this kind of strategy, Ukraine would be far better off. You can read the text of the agreement on the Verkhovna Rada website and see the way Ukraine will evolve. I see no alternative action plan for modernizing Ukraine. The Association Agreement is on the agenda and you don’t have to worry about what will happen five years later. We must do what’s on the agenda today.”

Mykola SIRUK: There is information to the effect that Yulia Tymoshenko will undergo surgery in Germany on September 15. Could this be a strong positive factor for the signing of the Association Agreement?

Ja.T.: “This is one of the factors. There are lots of such factors. Emphasis should also be placed on reforms that will change Ukraine [for the better] in the long run. What happens to Yulia Tymoshenko is also very important in the eyes of European parliaments. She was a politician with whom other politicians communicated, those very people who will decide on the Association Agreement with Ukraine. They will be hard put to make a positive decision with her in jail. If she is treated and undergoes surgery abroad, she said she would agree, I think this will have an impact on the views of European politicians. However, this isn’t the only problem that remains to be solved. There are reforms, public prosecutor’s offices, election laws, improving the business environment, elections in five districts, elections in Kyiv. The list is much longer than the Tymoshenko case. Today, the main emphasis must be on reforms.”

O.Ya.: Ukraine is said to be so far behind, it can still overtake. Do you think Ukraine could make a breakthrough in terms of modernization, on the road to the European Union?

Ja.T.: “Look at Turkey. Where was it 20 years ago? Where was China? Ukrainians must be confident of their own strength. Ukraine is one of the richest European countries in terms of natural resources. There are no such countries in Europe, so how come such a rich country is in such a bad situation?”

M.S.: What about the EU leadership crisis?

Ja.T.: “Yes, this crisis is still there. We know what crisis means in Chinese. It means opportunity. The ongoing crisis is helping us discover new leaders. We are in a very important natural phase of European politics. Those who founded the European Union have exhausted their programs, so we have to work out new programs, new social European systems. In Europe, the average life expectancy of women and men has increased to 82-83 and 85 years, correspondingly. They can now spend a half of their lives working and use the rest as well-earned capital.”

UKRAINIANS SHOULD SEE MORE OF THEIR COUNTRY, UNDERSTAND IT AND THEMSELVES

Yaroslav NAZAR: The strong positive aspect of the European Union is mobility, free movement of people, goods and services. What can the EU do – or is probably doing – to help Ukrainians travel more within the Union and thus help rapprochement between Ukraine and the EU?

Ja.T.: “I have said that Ukrainians should see more of Ukraine, learn to understand their country and themselves. A governor told me that statistically 20 percent Ukrainians have left their respective region only once. Traveling abroad isn’t a problem, the problem is that Ukrainians don’t know their own country. They should.

“Abroad we’re waiting for the Ukrainian government and parliament to decide on an action plan to liberalize the visa procedures. I’d hoped that we would complete Phase One in Vilnius and proceed to Phase Two, but we don’t have all the required legislative measures and decisions on the Ukrainian side. You should direct your requirements not to us but to your politicians, to all those in power. These issues aren’t concocted as everything has been agreed upon with the Ukrainian side, so these are not unilateral requirements on the part of the EU.”

I.L.: Recently the European Union recalled 70 million euros’ worth of financial aid allocated to Ukraine for facilitation of reforms in the civil service, because the term of implementation had expired. Why do think it happened that way?

Ja.T.: “You should pose this question to Ukrainian politicians. That sum was from the European budget. There are rules and timeframe for the usage of this money. We had to return the sum to the EU budget because there was no action plan for civil service reforms, although the point had stayed on the agenda for two years. Weren’t two years time enough for working out a bill and an action plan for making your civil service professional? The point wasn’t to build an abstract system or to have your civil service functioning like that in Singapore today. The idea was to take a series of measures to separate the civil service from political expediency – and this takes professional civil servants.”