The forecast of the first president

We discussed the recent events – the suspended preparation of signing the Association Agreement with the EU, Euromaidan, and European officials’ declarations – with the first president of Ukraine Leonid KRAVCHUK.

Have you met the president after these changes? What did you advise him to do?

“We have not had any special meetings on this issue. However, we met when laying wreaths on the 80th anniversary of the Holodomor. There have been other similar meetings. Of course, we touched upon this problem, the known decision of the Cabinet of Ministers. The president gave his arguments why they had to act this way. The prime minister and the speaker of the parliament did so too. Azarov presented the arguments and facts existing today and predicted for tomorrow. They are well-known.”

Why did they stop at the home straight? What are the reasons?

“First of all I have to say that the course of the European integration is not someone’s choice, the choice of the president, of the prime minister, of the head of the parliament or the head of the presidential administration. Our course of the European integration is defined in the constitutional law ‘On the bases of the domestic and foreign policy.’ That is why anybody who will try to cancel this law has to be responsible in front of the Constitution and the Ukrainian nation. The course of the European integration does not change, however, the leaders of the country explained why now the preparation for signing the Association Agreement has been suspended.

“The EU did not react to our request to help Ukraine with the relations with Russia, especially in economy. This is what the former president Yushchenko wrote about in The Financial Times: the US and EU are not attentive enough to the problems Ukraine has. Ukraine has found itself in a very complicated economic situation. The EU could have helped by giving loans or by increasing quotas for trading at the European market, the IMF could have helped as well, but on different conditions.

“Russia is behaving incorrectly, it does not stick to its obligations and international documents signed with Ukraine. Say, nobody has cancelled the agreements signed within the CIS, nobody has cancelled the free trade area with Russia and nobody has cancelled the agreements within WTO. Russia does not pay attention to this, it has always acted despite the laws and legislative acts proceeding from its own interests as it is not interested in other countries’ interests. Russia is trying to make Ukraine enter the Customs Union. Russia is interested in Ukraine to be in its sphere of influence. It is using different means to achieve its goals. Moreover, in our country there is the constantly acting fifth column that is only waiting for a signal.”

What can we oppose to the Russian policy since it has been pursuing it for many years?

“We should have focused on the European markets long ago. When I started doing it during my presidential term, I was severely criticized: Kravchuk made Ukraine break the economic relations with Russia. But if we do not break them, they will stay… Leonid Kuchma won the election in 1994 because he promised to restore the relations with Russia and make the gas cheaper. New enterprises oriented on the Russian market started opening. Till Russia holds the leverage we will be dependent on it. That is why we have to re-orientate. It is painful. But if we do not do it through the new quality of products, technological processes and forms of management we will always be dependent on Russia.

“We can resist Russia becoming the EU members. Russia will not accept any other means. However, there are those who say: we should cooperate with Russia yet more deeply and they are not interested in our civilization choice. For example, during the program ‘Svoboda Slova’ on ICTV channel one of the propagandists from the Party of Regions stated that ‘our people are living happily and calmly and the opposition is hindering it.’ Is it possible to say such absurd things in any other country? They cannot speak on behalf of all the people, but they do it as they are not responsible for anything.

“The opposition says it is not its fault and it does not have to take responsibility and the government says that the life is improving every day and only the opposition impedes this. The people will not be able to bear these ideological and political formulas.”

How would you assess the events on the Euromaidan?

“We already had it in 2004. Then Yushchenko and his colleagues shared the bread on Maidan speaking about the beautiful life in the near future: everyone will live well and those who will impede this will be imprisoned. However, as a result everything turned to be the opposite. That is why today people do not want to believe maidans. Many people are coming without any party symbols and do not want to communicate with the parties. People openly say that they want to live in the European Union and to be Europeans. They do not want to be used by political leaders.”

After having suspended the preparation of signing the agreement with the EU, the Cabinet of Ministers declared that the third party, Russia, should be involved into the negotiations. Do you think it is reasonable?

“I think it is a political misunderstanding. We should respect the EU. What does it have to do with Russia when we are speaking about Ukraine signing the Association Agreement with the EU? Do we have to ask Russia for advice if we should or should not join the EU? That is why the EU representatives told us that the question is of bilateral relations between the EU and Ukraine and Russia has nothing to do with it. If Russia has some issues with the EU or Ukraine they have to be settled in bilateral relations. The trilateral mission is absurd.”

There is also a declaration of the German chancellor Angela Merkel that she would speak with the Russian president about Ukraine. Does it mean they will make our decision without us?

“Taking into account that Russia will probably always want to keep Ukraine to hand and the EU just cannot put all its efforts to accept Ukraine into the EU we should be a non-aligned country. Back in 1990 when the declaration of Ukraine’s sovereignty was adopted I suggested the formula: Ukraine is a non-nuclear and non-aligned country. If we look at the prospects, the real place of Ukraine in the world and our environment, the multi-vector policy or some ‘bridge concept’ are just illusions. We cannot be a bridge everybody will be running on: Russia in one direction and Europe in the other. That is why I think we should be a non-aligned country.”

But our non-aligned status is legislated.

“There have been only declarations, nothing is written.”

How can we have a non-aligned status if there is a base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet on our territory?

“We have to change everything and agree this question with Russia. Ukraine cannot have foreign bases on its territory.”

What is your forecast: what should we expect from the Vilnius Summit?

“Judging from the European officials’ declarations the EU is ready to put its signature at the Vilnius Summit. However, I do not think Ukraine is ready. Personally I do not like it as I have always supported the idea of the European integration. We have to weigh up everything, make exact conclusions and assessments and put yet more efforts to sign the Association Agreement. Stefan Fuele has already said that it will be possible to sign the Association Agreement at the end of the winter or at the beginning of the spring.”