Democracy test: successfully completed

Parliamentary elections in the country of Georgia on Monday, October 1, 2012, left all of 51,000 international observers dazzled and they unanimously appreciated the arrangements made by Georgian authorities. Lithuanian legislator Martas Adomenas, head of a monitoring group sent by the Eastern Europe Study Centre, said the election was “consistent with principle international standards for democratic elections.” His EP counterpart Inderk Tarand believes the voting process was open and transparent.

Another proof of their democratic nature is the fact that the outcome could not have been predicted by anyone. Of course, the winner will be proclaimed after the final counting of votes.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili stated earlier that the votes were still being counted, but conceded defeat in parliamentary polls; that it was a shock victory on the part of an opposition coalition [led by billionaire tycoon Bidzina Ivanishvili]. He also said that his United National Movement party had won a spectacular victory in the majoritarian electoral districts.

The Day asked Tengiz PKHALADZE, head of the International Centre for Geopolitical Studies (ICGS) in Tbilisi, for comment, including how the election outcome would affect Georgia’s relations with the EU, NATO, and Russia.

“It should be noted, in the first place, that Georgia has passed the democracy test, considering that the [parliamentary] elections have been recognized [by the international community] as democratic and transparent, and that this was a major challenge facing all those in power in Georgia. The votes are still being counted, but even now it is obvious that the coalition Georgian Dream is the winner. Votes are also being counted in the majoritarian electoral districts, so we’ll have to wait for the result. Neither rival has won the constitutional majority and I regard this as an absolutely normal development. This was something well to be expected. Judging from the tentative election outcome estimates, the number of ballots cast reflects the electorate’s moods.”

There is media information to the effect that 30 percent of the exit poll respondents in Georgia refused to identify their nominee. Why? Were they scared?

“I wouldn’t look at the matter from this angle, I mean that people were scared to give a straight answer to a straight question. I’d rather say that they simply didn’t want to be exit poll respondents. This attitude has nothing to do with fear, just a personal attitude to a poll. After all, the voters made their choice during the elections. Everything had been done to make the electoral process free and transparent. Georgia has passed the main democracy test.”

Considering the tentative election outcome estimates, will Georgia keep moving in the direction of the EU and NATO? Could it alter this course?

“Georgia’s movement in the direction of NATO and its Euro-Atlantic integration is the people’s choice, as evidenced by the 2008 referendum when some 80 percent said yea. In fact, all subsequent polls have shown that this percentage remains practically unchanged. This is the only way for Georgian society to build a nation-state. There is no alternative. Georgia can exist [as a polity] only within the family of European and Western states, period.”

Georgian Dream leader [billionaire tycoon] Bidzina Ivanishvili said he could become prime minister. Can he?

“He is an opposition candidate for this post, but he will gain it only after Georgian Dream wins the majority in parliament. Votes are still being counted. At the moment neither party – the National Movement or Georgian Dream – has won the number of votes requiered to form parliament, but there is the option of a coalition government. It all depends on the outcome of the election.”

According to media reports, the opposition has won more votes in Tbilisi. In other words, the capital city of Georgia has voted against those currently in power. Would you care to comment on this?

“Nothing strange about this. Tbilisi’s [political] moods are common knowledge, also everyone knows about Georgian Dream having most supporters in the capital city, so what happened was no surprise for the Georgian in the street or for any of those who carried out the polls. By the way, Tbilisi voted against the ruling party in 2008. Of course, this is [Georgia’s] largest city and its ballots mean a great deal, yet Tbilisi is part of Georgia, not all of this country.”

Why do you think Tbilisi voted for Ivanishvili rather than his counterpart currently in office?

“Tbilisi is a political epicenter, being most susceptible to the slightest political fluctuations. It is only natural that major political developments should leave reverberations to be received in Tbilisi, in the first place. Any political movement starts in the capital city, so it was only natural for the Georgian Dream party to originate from Tbilisi. Its central office is there, which is standard practice, and this party is getting to be a major political center.”

Ivanishvili is quoted as saying that his coalition could split, forming several factions in the Georgian parliament.

“True enough. His coalition comprises several entities that have something in common, yet their views on some serious strategic matters differ. Also, there is another, presidential, election campaign shortly to take place in Georgia. I can’t rule out the possibility of these [opposition] forces having united precisely to engage in another political duel.”

Indeed. On the other hand, the president’s powers will be limited, so it seems safe to assume that the presidential race won’t be as important as the parliamentary elections.

“Absolutely, although there is no reason to assume that the president will become a figurehead. The head of state is elected by popular vote. This is an important aspect. Besides, the political model Georgia is adopting is not exactly parliamentary. The president will retain certain powers. Of course, he won’t be as powerful as he is today, yet he won’t be like his German counterpart.”

Will the election results have an impact on Georgia’s relations with Russia? Any changes to be expected, considering that Ivanishvili promises to improve relations with Moscow?

“You should pose this question to Moscow. The main thing is that Russia is losing its most favored argument – I mean Moscow’s repeated declarations that no talks would be held with anyone in power in Tbilisi – because Georgia has made its choice in favor of the parliamentary system. Russia will have to respect the Georgian people’s choice and forget about no talks with a people its army fought in 2008; they will have to discard all such political nonsense. Moscow would be wrong to assume that Tbilisi could alter its political course because this course has been chosen by the Georgian people, not just by those in power in Tbilisi. Assuming that there are sober-minded forces there [i.e., in Russia], one can expect a political roundtable. Georgia is prepared for this turn in events. My country has repeatedly made statements to this effect and proposed negotiations. Georgia is waiting for a response from Russia.

COMMENTARIES

Lasha TUGUSHI, editor-in-chief, Rezonansy(Resonances) newspaper:

“This is a step ahead. First, the elections have taken place, and one political force has been elected to parliament by the majority of people’s votes. I don’t think we can draw parallels here with the occupation of 2008. This is a totally different thing. We Georgians must decide who will be in power today, tomorrow, and The Day after tomorrow. It is called a European electoral democracy when one political party yields to another. And the opposition party stands the chances to win the elections and come back to power over some period of time. It does not mean that someone wants to pull some party down. The Ivanishvili Bloc’s program is more acceptable for Georgia today. Naturally, the chances of the Georgian Dream increased owing to the scandalous prison video.”

Will foreign policy change after Ivanishvili, called a pro-Russian candidate, comes to power?

“The foreign policy program of the Georgian Dream coalition is aimed at the Euro-Atlantic integration, closer relations with the West, and mending relations with our northern neighbor. Nothing will change here. What is most important, the elections have taken place, for previously the power in Georgia changed by way of revolutions or with the help of force.”

Everyone acknowledges that during Saakashvili’s presidency much has been done in the country, including the anti-corruption and transparency of the government. Don’t the majority of the voters appreciate this, voting for the new political force?

“I can hardly say it is not appreciated. In fact the power must do something. Everyone can see what Saakashvili has done. But you need to do more and go further. You need to give new political forces a chance, when they promise that they will continue the reforms or will launch some. I must say President Saakashvili has had problems with democratic reforms. Transparency does not mean that the police offices are transparent. This is quite a deeper thing, which involves the transparency of finances, informing of the entire population, the transparency of the government’s activity. Saakashvili has had big problems with this. It seemed he was standing at a wall, unable to proceed. The problem is not about whether he is good or bad, rather it is about the fact that one party has been enjoying the majority for a very long time. True, this power has been developing democracy, but it has tired and exhausted its possibilities, therefore a new party has come, which will start out with new energy and new ideas. And Saakashvili has an opportunity to be a strong opposition. Besides, he will be holding presidential office until the end of his term in October 2013.

“Certain complicated moments may emerge in cooperation between the parliament and president, because we have never lived under such political circumstances. Still, if we want to continue to develop, we need to ride out crisis and semi-crisis political situations. The change of power can help in this. Of course there are some risks. When a country seeks to deepen democracy, you always need to go ahead. Taking into consideration the complicated geopolitical situation and the fact that part of our territory is occupied, we are moving towards the West, we want to integrate into the EU and NATO. We have no other way out.”

In your opinion, will Ivanishvili succeed in bringing the occupied territory back or will he have to concede?

“I don’t think he will need to make concessions. No politician in Georgia will dare concede anything. Ivanishvili wants to start a dialogue and find some solutions in economic and cultural relations. He has already told that he hopes to find some areas of contact. Moscow hardly thinks that in Georgia some force will come to power and say: we agree to reunite Georgia. This is unreal. I don’t know any politicians who will do that, but Georgian people do not deserve this version. Yesterday Ivanishvili stated that he wants to furthermore deepen relations with the US. Based on the fact that the coalition includes the parties like the old Republican Party, which has always supported deepening relations with the West, I don’t think either Ivanishvili, or his milieu will alter the course.”

Ghia NODIA, director of Caucasus Institute of Peace, Democracy and Development

How would you comment on the first statements made by Bidzina Ivanishvili that Mikheil Saakashvili must resign?

“The statement that the president should resign is unconstitutional because he was elected by the people. And the president, despite the fact that he has great authority, said that he will not interfere with the process of formation of new government by the parliament. That is why the statement about the resignation of the president is very alerting.”

In your opinion, what will the foreign policy of Ivanishvili be? Will he pursue pro-Russian or pro-Georgian policy?

“I hope he will not be absolutely pro-Russian and will pursue some kind of his own policy. However, in terms of mentality and values, Ivanishvili is much closer to Russia than to the West. But the fact that the coalition depends on the will of one person is quite alarming.”

Thus, these elections can be viewed as the evidence that the attempt to secure Western values among Georgian people failed, is that right?

“Especially after the scandal with the video made in prison and accusations against Saakashvili that he is authoritarian, many people who share Western values, also voted against Saakashvili. Perhaps, they did not like Ivanishvili, but this was their way of protesting. Among the supporters of Ivanishvili there are different people and some of them are really focused on the West. Now they say that they have changed the government by the constitutional majority and by doing so they got closer to Europe and Saakashvili was a barrier for Western integration. People say things like this. However, it is not certain to what extent such statements correspond to the real mood of Ivanishvili. There are reasons to be skeptical about this.”

In your opinion, after the Ivanishvili government will assume power will Russia change its position towards Georgia regarding the issue of recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, will it remove the ban on the import of Borjomi and Georgian wine?

“In case with Borjomi they may change their policies. But the principle position on Abkhazia is a strategic issue and Russia will not change its mind about it. It seems to me that soon it will become clear that without considerable strategic concessions which would lead to partial renunciation of the real sovereignty there will never be any serious improvement in relations with Russia.”

Will Ivanishvili agree to that?

“I do not think that this will be a very popular move with the people of Georgia. But he still can make some steps: maybe he will not recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia explicitly but will just say that there is no need to proceed with this question, which, in fact, is the same as recognition.”