Republican Straw Poll

The struggle among the Republicans for the GOP (Grand Old Party) candidacy at the 2012 presidential elections is escalating. The evidence of this is the straw poll held on August 13 in Ames, Iowa.

Though this informal poll does not formally influence the primaries which will start in February 2012, the victory of the 55-year-old Republican congresswoman from Minnesota Michele Bachmann lays the groundwork. She far outstripped her main rival, the former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who had won the Ames straw poll back in 2007. Being the favorite of the Tea Party anti-governmental movement and the most conservative Republicans, Bachmann received 4,823 votes (28.5 percent) of nearly 17,000 Americans who participated in the poll. Congressman Ronald Paul, supported by 4,671 respondents was slightly behind her. The former Minnesota governor Tim Polenta received twice as fewer votes, only 2,293 though he had spent the major part of this month in Ames trying to win the electorate. By the way, Polenta withdrew his candidacy on August 14. Romney was on the voting list but did not participate in the poll. He received only 567 votes.

The 61-year-old Texas Governor Rick Perry added a new intrigue to the Republicans’ race by announcing his candidacy. The local newspapers have remarked that by doing this Perry muffled the noise around Bachmann’s victory in Iowa. Many Republicans have been waiting for Texas go-vernor to take this step for a long time. According to the public opinion poll, currently, the ex-governor Romney of Massachusetts is the most popular candidate from the Republicans; he belongs to the moderate wing that is becoming less and less popular with the Republicans who became more conservative lately. Many of them cannot forgive Romney for having carried out the health care reform in his sate (scoffingly called the People’s Republic of Massachusetts), the reform that served as a prototype for Obama’s reform which they detest.

The columnists believe that Perry may enter the trio of the leading candidates from the Republican Party along with Romney and Bachmann. One of the most famous Republicans Sarah Palin has not declared her candidacy for president yet. Bachmann, just like Palin is the heroine mother who gave birth to five children and, according to her, brought up 23 adopted ones. The journalists who mainly support the Democrats have found out that Bachmann did not bring up all of her adopted children: some of them lived with her only for a short period of time.

It is clear that not only the US but the whole world is now watching the trio. They know nearly everything about Romney who fought for the nomination for presidential election in 2007 whereas one cannot say the same about Bachmann and Perry.

It should be noted that during her election campaign in Iowa Bachmann capitalized on the “home factor.” In her speeches she always emphasized that she had been born and had spent her childhood in Waterloo [IA. – Ed.]. “I often say that everything I need to know I learned in Iowa. So I have always been grateful that I am an Iowan and I believe it is time we had an Iowan in the White House,” she told to her supporters after the poll. Besides, she emphasized: “We just sent a message that Barack Obama will be a one-term president. This is the very first step in taking the White House in 2012.”

Bachmann’s election program provides for the drastic reduction of the governmental expenditures and the US public debt, the abolition of the health care reform and the resumption of the relations with Israel that, according to its American supporters, have worsen under the current government. Some observers remark that Bachmann somehow follows the senator Obama’s election campaign: he carried on an exhausting struggle for the state of Iowa back in 2007. Moreover, her messages sometimes resemble his slogans: she owes her victory to her supporters aspiring to the “real changes.”

Meanwhile, Texas governor explained his intention to stand for the presidential election: “It is time to get America working again and that’s why with the support of my family and the unwavering belief of the goodness of America I declare for you today that I’m a candidate for pre-sident of the United States.” In 2000, Perry replaced George Bush on his position of Texas governor and later won the elections three times in 2002, 2006 and 2010. One of his main achievements as a governor is the significant job growth in Texas: since 2009 nearly 40 percent of the new jobs in the US have been created in Texas. Being an ardent opponent of abortion and same-sex marriages Perry supports the death penalty and calls upon the most conservative and religious wind of the Republican Party. Recently Perry spoke at a religious meeting in Huston where he called to pray to help the US overcome the economic crisis.

In his speech in South Carolina Perry who has been Texas governor for 11 years promised to make Washington as “inconsequential to Americans’ lives as possible.” The governor declared that he would cut taxes and liberalize business that would contribute to the economic development. “Mr. President, let us tell you something. You cannot win the future by selling America off to foreign creditors. We cannot afford four more years of this rudderless leadership,” Perry criticized the economic policy of the current US President Barack Obama.

Analysts remark that the successful straw poll does not always lead to the victory at the party election. Four years ago Romney easily defeated Mike Huckabee in Ames but in January 2007 he received nine percent less votes than Arkansas governor of that time.

Iowa traditionally holds a lot of pre-election events. This state is one of the essential ones for a presidential campaign. During the last election the Republicans held in Iowa nearly 2,500 pre-election events and meetings with electors; over 35 million dollars were spent for the election campaigning on the television.

As a result of the Democratic Party electors’ meeting in winter 2008 Barack Obama enlisted the support of 38 percent of the voters. The former senator John Edwards took the second place (30 percent), the former US first lady, Senator Hillary Clinton was the third (29 percent), New-Mexico Governor Bill Richardson was the fourth (2 percent) and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Joseph Biden was the fifth (1 percent). After the Iowa electors’ meeting Obama became the leading candidate from the Democrats whereas Biden withdrew his candidacy from the presidential campaign.

Arkansas governor Huckabee won the Republicans’ elections in winter 2008 by receiving 34 percent of votes (he does not run for president in 2012). The former Massachusetts governor, Mormon Mitt Romney took the se-cond place (25 percent). The third place was shared between the former senator and Hollywood actor Fred Thompson and Senator John McCain who received 13 percent of votes. They were followed by Congressman Ron Paul (10 percent) who has stood for the current presidential election and the former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani (3 percent) who has not declared candidacy for 2012.

However, there are people who do not consider the results of the Iowa poll to be the indicator of the successful campaign. In 2008, Bill Clinton who accompanied his wife during the events in Iowa told the journalists that the state meeting is only the beginning of the US primaries and recalled his first presidential campaign in 1992 when after the election in Iowa he was only at the fourth place and later lost the primaries in the next five states.

After the electors’ meeting in Iowa the next traditionally important point of the presidential campaign will be the first primaries in the state of New-Hampshire on February 14. The pre-election meeting of the Republican Party will be held on August 27-30, 2012, in Tampa (Florida) and the Democrats’ meeting will take place on September 3-7, in Charlotte (North Carolina). The presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012.