European policy “invites” Putin to Mariupol

The visit of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko to Berlin on March 16 and negotiations with the top German officials Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Joachim Gauck had more symbolic than practical meaning for ending Russian aggression in Donbas.

As the head of the Ukrainian office of Deutsche Welle Bernd Johann noted, by inviting Po­ro­shenko on the anniversary of Crimea annexation, Germany demonstrated it did not forget about this problem. Indeed, during a common briefing with Poroshenko Merkel stated that Germany does not recognize the annexation of Crimea by Russia, because it threatens the peaceful order in Europe. “I want to emphasize once more that we will not forget about it,” the Chancellor said. From the point of view of the Western countries, the so-called referendum on joining the Cri-mean peninsula to the RF was carried out a year ago with the vio­lation of international law.

Merkel and Gauck made it clear for the Ukrainian president that Russia’s actions in Crimea will ne­ver be recognized by Germany. It was a blow to an independent country, which contradicts international law. How­ever, neither Poroshenko nor the German go­vernment have a plan on how to bring Crimea back to Ukraine in the near future, emphasized Gauck.

And here the symbolism of these negotiations in Berlin on the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea clashed with the harsh reality: Europe’s unwillingness to toughen sanctions against Russia and se­paratists supported by it, who, unlike Ukraine, do not stick to the Minsk accords.

Meanwhile, Poroshenko expressed hope in Berlin that it will be decided at the EU Summit this week (March 19-20) that if the truce conditions are not adhered to, European countries will toughen sanctions against Russia.

In reply to this, Merkel stated during the common briefing with President Poroshenko that sanctions of the European Union against Russia would be discussed in March, but the decision on the possible toughening of the sanctions could be made no earlier than in June. “Sanctions are related to the implementation of the Minsk accords. A legal decision (on toughening of the sanctions) will not be made in March, but only a political discussion will be held. If the accords are not implemented, it is possible that the legal decision will be made in June,” Reuters quotes the Chancellor’s words.

The EU’s, and Germany’s in particular, weakness is shown by the fact that the mechanism of verification of heavy artillery withdrawal, which was offered by Berlin, is not working. Separatists simply do not let the OSCE observers into territory controlled by them. And how does Germany react to this? It doesn’t at all. But this is one of the conditions of the Minsk accords.

Virtually, in return for Ukraine’s obligation to carry out the Minsk accords, Berlin promised only financial and economic help, and only under the condition of Kyiv’s implementation of long promised reforms in fighting corruption and judicial system.

The Day addressed Ukrainian and fo­reign experts with a request to comment on the results of negotiations between Poroshenko and Merkel, and their affect on Putin’s policy.

Gerhard GNAUCK, correspondent of Die Welt newspaper, Warsaw:

“The general message in German mass media on Poroshenko’s visit looked like that: the president said in an interview to Bild newspaper that the Minsk accords are not working and they are ‘hope, not reality.’

“The other part of the message is that during a long conversation Merkel brought Poroshenko back to the path of faith in these accords.

“The differences were obvious. It is the most likely these differences relate to tactics, but they are present. It was also clear what Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung cri­ticized. The Chancellor, the newspaper wrote, expressed herself ‘not clearly’ when she spoke about autonomy for Donbas. And her guest emphasized: please do not forget that sovereignty of Ukraine must be restored on all of its territory.

“Merkel spoke softly of the possible new sanctions. Looks like the EU is still fighting for unity among its members as regards this issue. It is good Merkel directed attention at the events around Ma­riupol, it was clear that the conversation with the guest was very specific. A lot of experts think that the attack from the east on a large city like Mariupol will have automatic consequences in the form of the supply of defense weapons to Ukraine.

“As for Russia, Bild quotes German politicians, who support Poroshenko’s idea: the boycott of the FIFA World Cup in Russia.”

Mykola KAPITONENKO, executive director, Center for International Relations Research, Kyiv:

“I think this meeting was just like the rest. Ritual assurances are almost classical. Europe follows a certain established rhetoric. Ever since Maidan, confusion and inefficiency have been disguised with words. On the one hand, the EU does not pass the unity test organized by Putin. On the other, even on the level of individual countries, there is no understanding of what should be done with Ukraine further. In the foreign policy of Germany, which has claims for the role of the leader, this is implemented to the greatest extent. And Merkel chooses the ‘golden mean,’ the most cautious option. Current sanctions are the basis of politics. They are an indicator of a position. Europe needs the localization of the conflict, and no more than that, it seems. An attack on Mariupol is possible in April or May, so having mentioned the review of sanctions in June, Merkel defined the ‘price of the issue’ for Putin. Now he will determine to what extent he is willing to pay it. These are the ‘partner business’ relations, only in this case security and principles are the commodities.”

Edward LUCAS, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis,author of the book The New Cold War:

“The paradox is that both Merkel and Poroshenko agree that there is no alternative to Minsk. And yet they both agree that Minsk is not working. So, we are stuck with a policy that does not work and which does not deter Putin. This makes it likely that he feels he can continue to destabilize Ukraine. We are still a long way from serious sanctions, Merkel does not want to promise what she cannot deliver – and she knows that many European countries want to ease the sanctions to reward Russia for the ‘ceasefire,’ not to tighten them.”

Susan STEWART, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin:

“I think it is necessary to keep in mind what is likely to be realistic in the overall EU context. First of all, the sanctions due to be reviewed in March were extended until September. This took place (as a political decision) at the end of January and was therefore not linked to Minsk II, but it did happen. Also, there have been clear statements from Germany and the EU that both directions are possible with regard to sanctions. If Russia adheres to the Minsk agreements and helps to de-escalate the si­tuation in the Donbas, then some of the sanctions could be eased or lifted. If Russia fails to do so, there will be further sanctions. Right now the belief in Germany seems to be that, while the ceasefire is certainly not holding as well as it should, there has been an improvement in the situation. It seems that more time is needed before the EU (including Germany) comes to the conclusion that Russia is not willing to adhere to the agreements reached in Minsk. I think that it is very important for the EU to keep up a unified position on the sanctions and to make any changes in them dependent on Russian behavior regarding Ukraine. If at all possible the EU should also try to continue to coordinate its position with the US, but this may become increasingly difficult considering the hardline attitude of the Republicans and some Democrats.”