Ukrainian PR mission: not too late?

A large group of Ukrainians, including Cabinet members, politicians, performers, and journalists, arrived in Holland last week with the intention to convince the Dutch to vote in favor of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. The Day used Skype for an interview with the Ukrainian Ambassador to The Netherlands, Oleksandr HORIN, and the number-one question was whether that campaign would have an effect on the April 6 referendum. His voice was hoarse from numerous discussions.

DRAWING PUBLIC ATTENTION

“We did all we could last week to show the Dutch Ukraine’s European visage and convince them that the Association Agreement with Ukraine posed no threat to The Netherlands, that they wouldn’t be involved in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Practically all who came from Ukraine and took part in the campaign said that Ukraine had made its European choice, that it saw itself as a member of the European community of nations, that this would help Ukraine become a civilized liberal democracy with a socially oriented economy under the rule of law.”

Could you point out any special events in the course of that campaign in The Netherlands?

“The finance, economy and foreign ministers visited The Netherlands last week. They took part in public discussions, answered questions, and actively supported the idea that the Association Agreement was for the good of The Netherlands, Ukraine, and EU. Of course, they cited facts to prove their point. Days of the Ukrainian Cinema were held in Amsterdam. Young Ukrainians from the Academy of Leadership boarded trains to tour The Netherlands and campaign for the agreement. I was touched to hear some Dutch recite Ukrainian poems. Maidan University delegates met with Dutch students. There was a special event at Leiden University, dedicated to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine… We tried to be active during the campaign and it climaxed in a rally held on the central square of Amsterdam, Dam, and they called it MaiDam. Political party leaders, representatives of various social strata, and the Ukrainian and Dutch foreign ministers took the floor. I could sum up this campaign by saying that it was strong and large scale, and that we succeeded in drawing public attention.”

NO ONE IN HOLLAND IS SURE ABOUT REFERENDUM’S OUTCOME

Suppose the Dutch prove to care little if at all about Ukraine and the referendum is just to show their negative attitude toward Brussels. Then what?

“These are different stories. We must tell ourselves that we’ve done our utmost and that the Dutch will make their decision, that their vote is their business, but that their decision won’t be aimed against Ukraine. And yes, we may end up as an accidental victim of Euroskepticism and problems within the European Union. One thing must be made absolutely clear: the Dutch aren’t against Project United Europe, they are against the European bureaucracy that keeps distorting the EU idea. That’s their problem, but regrettably, this problem addresses Ukraine, because the referendum is on the Association Agreement. The fact remains that, according to the organizers, this referendum has very little to do with Ukraine. This is proof that certain people in Holland can have a different view on the referendum campaign, so the outcome is anyone’s guess. It can be absolutely negative or positive. We’re interested in a positive outcome, of course, but we have to brace ourselves for a negative one and try to analyze the consequences. The whole situation can’t be assessed on a black-and-white basis. [If worse comes to worst] some will shout about Ukraine having been thrown to the wolves, but this doesn’t matter. What matters are the decisions made by various sides, including by the government.”

This referendum is consultative. Will the government be under the obligation to consider its outcome?

“The notion of government includes parliament in The Netherlands, so the political parties in parliament will be in a position to put pressure on the government. The latest poll, published on April 2, points to an increased support for the Association Agreement by the pro-government forces. If the local leaders talk the fellow party members into voting in favor of the agreement, the referendum may show a positive result. On the other hand, I know from experience that the Dutch hate third party recommendations. For those closely following the referendum campaign, the whole thing is like a detective story.”

OUT OF DUTCH JURISDICTION, CAN’T BE STOPPED

Recently I spoke with Senator Schaap, who frequently visits Ukraine. He said that we could make an amendment to the Association Agreement if the referendum said nay, and that this would be a way to make up for the negative outcome. This amendment should read that the agreement is not a step taken toward EU membership. What do you think?

“I think that this is up the lawyer’s alley and I’m not in an anticipating mood. Let’s wait and see the outcome of the referendum. If it is nay, then everyone will be busy looking for a way to deal with the situation. We have the opinion of 27 EU member countries, of most of the population there. If one follows the logic of digits, an absolute minimum cannot stop an absolute maximum in regard to an agreement subject to mixed jurisdiction. There is no stopping something that’s out of the Dutch jurisdiction by a decision made by a minority of the Dutch population – and I’m sure that it will be minority. Ukraine is interested in an effective implementation of the Association Agreement. There is no way the Dutch can block the agreement because it isn’t the European Constitution. I’m sure that steps will be taken to make the agreement work, for Ukraine to benefit from it. The referendum will not be officially summed up on Wednesday night. Only the vote results will, and everyone will wait for the government to announce its response that won’t come before April 12.”