How Ukrainians Feel a Year Before

Leonid Kuchma was elected President of Ukraine four years ago. Next year will see another presidential campaign. In practically every country this is the time when what came before is summed up and predictions are made.

It would be premature to discuss the next President now, but it is very important to be aware of the attitudes, hopes, and worries of those who will cast their votes next year. Starting in December 1994, the Strategic Communications Center has conducted polls trying to keep a sensitive finger on the pulse of society. Here are this year's returns.

LIFE WITHOUT THE RIGHT TO HOPE

An important indicator of people's attitudes is a comparison of their current status with that before reforms began.

"Things are worse now than they used to be" is a phrase best describing the predominant feeling traced back to 1993. This year, 46.8% of the respondents stated that their life has become "considerably worse" than before 1991; 27.5% feel that things have grown "a little worse," bringing the total to 74.1% which is significantly more than in 1993 by almost 10%. At the same time, more people feel that they live better now than before perestroika: from 17.2% to 19.8%.

Studies also show that overall attitudes have worsened over the past four years: 5.6% feel "calm and confident" (6.4% did in 1994); 32.4% are worried but believe that things will soon straighten out (41.8% in 1994). 29.2% respondents are disturbed and irritated, compared to 22.1% four years back. Fear, deep concern, and despair prevail among 32.8% (19.8% in 1994).

Young people are the inevitable optimists: in terms of social and professional groups, these are students, people running small and medium businesses or working in commerce, consumer services, and information.

The most complaining respondents are middle-aged people, farmers, unemployed, workers of government-run enterprises (especially in the light and machine-building industries), pensioners, and military servicemen.

Attitudes in the southeast deserve separate notice, ranging from very pessimistic to aggressively dissatisfied.

Among numerous problems causing social discomfort and disillusionment in urban areas we can single out the following:

- sheer lawlessness, absolute supremacy of rackets, all-pervasive corruption (73.2%);

- absolute vulnerability of the man in the street, being defenseless against mobsters and bureaucrats from head of the housing department to the mayor and his minions (72.1%);

- constant arrears in wages, salaries, pensions, and stipends (62.8%);

- lowered living standards to the critical level, making it hard to survive (62.3%);

- threat of unemployment (61.2%).

The ratio with a negative attitude to the overall situation in Ukraine has reached 90%, practically tallying with 1993 statistics.

Almost 62% are convinced that the current government will be unable to prevent further worsening of the socioeconomic situation this year.

WHO IS TO BLAME? WHO WILL HELP?

There are two stereotypes in the further formation of public opinion which should be regarded as crucial.

The first is who the people blames for their disastrously lowered living standards. The second, who they look to for a way out of the crisis.

Here the range of views is quite extensive, from the Soviet Communist Party and Gorbachev who destroyed the USSR to the democrats to Western Ukrainian nationalists to poets, writers, etc.

As for the salvation mission, back in 1994 only 9.6% believed that the Communists would do the job after returning to power. Currently, it is 17%. About 8.2% rely on the West and 5.6% on the democrats. Considerably more people place their hopes in businessmen (3.2%-10.1%). New, or rather half-forgotten old, concepts have appeared. Some 22.5% believe that the people, the "working masses taking power in their hands," constitute the only force capable of overcoming the crisis in Ukraine.

Approximately 44% of the populace stubbornly adhere to old Soviet stereotypes. These people are convinced that there is a "worldwide imperialistic conspiracy against Ukraine and all former Soviet republics," that "justice means fair redistribution," that "business always means fraud," that "the rich are always immoral," that "order is more important than personal freedom," and that "reform always makes ordinary people suffer."

Close to 55% of the respondents with a post-secondary education see the reasons for the present crisis not in the external factors like the Russian and Asian crises, but in the domestic ones: paralyzed production, nationwide theft, and exorbitant government spending for its own benefit.

All this percentage shows that the people are dissatisfied by the powers that be. Almost 70% are convinced that the main social institutions "act contrary to the people's interest" and are headed by "incompetent leaders who cannot be trusted, because they are concerned only with their selfish interests and don't give a damn about the nation and its future."

NO LOVE LOST BETWEEN PEOPLE
AND POWER

In any normal country those in power try to be in contact with society, remember it, and respect it. Not so in Ukraine. The local bureaucrats want the people to live in a way best suiting their administrative interests. They further want good pay to make them happy in running their people. You are unhappy because you cannot live up to our administrative standard, they tell the man in the street, and because your needs are incompatible with the administrative system we serve.

This approach makes it clear why there is no love lost between the Ukrainian populace and the authorities.

48.5% of respondents believe that real power is largely in the hands of criminal structures; 24.8% point to ranking bureaucrats, and 37.2% to "private capital."

Only 14.6% regard the President as having real power; 9.2% mention the Verkhovna Rada; 11.4% the Cabinet; 12.8% other power structures; and 10.1%, local authorities.

Another interesting shift in people's views is that a mere 11.8% believe those in power act in the President's interests; 10.2% mention the Cabinet; some 22% point to the Mafia; 24.8% to businessmen, and 20.2% to the West.

78.9% consider that the authorities do very little to protect the interests of the people in general and basic social groups in particular; 58.6% think that the judiciary is unfair and does nothing to protect people's interests.

Relationships between citizens and power structures are increasingly strained. In fact, social discord is becoming nationwide. It is true that the Ukrainian people is basically patient, but society is approaching an explosive stage.

At the start of the year 32% believed that the government can no longer count on this patience while going through the motions of economic reforms. Now there are 68% of the same opinion. On the average, every seventh resident of Ukraine (14.5%) and every third in the southeast (32.3) are prepared to take part in various actions of protest, which is three times the figures registered in 1997.

AGONY OF PROTEST

A possible social outburst is gaining momentum in terms of aggressive and destructive attitudes. Mass consciousness is becoming oriented toward not only meetings, rallies or picketing, but also to hunger strikes and protest marches to Kyiv and regional centers.

One of the dangerous social symptoms is that about 12.2% are inwardly prepared for unlawful acts like seizing enterprises, organizations, and institutions (in fact, 1.8% of the respondents voiced such ideas), blocking highways and railroads (2.1%), staging spontaneous revolts (1.6%), armed actions of protest (1.4%), etc. Hotheads have appeared on the social arena and their number is increasing. They are a serious threat to public law and order, the more so that aggressive discontent is a contagious disease contracted by practically all social strata, professional groups, and regions.

There is the so-called Beliayev syndrome. It comes from a Russian army major named Beliayev who, while stationed at Nizhni Tagil, decided to use his tank to stage an action of protest against constant back wages and the resultant misery. He drove out of the unit compound and headed for a nearby town, stopping on its central square. His action was immediately and aggressively supported by the people.

This incident shows that the Russian military have approached a phase extremely dangerous for their country and themselves; servicemen feel free to leave barracks, unauthorized, to demonstrate their protest against and disagreement with current realities.

And the response to Beliayev's act from the Ukrainian officers is not encouraging: almost 80% of the respondents knew about it and more than one half supported it; 65% stated that their moral and material status were miserable.

In a word, there is no denying the possibility that next time striking miners will be joined by Ukrainian officers and men knocking their helmets on the Khreshchatyk pavement...

POLITICS AND PARTIES: UNPOPULAR

Economic pessimism has obviously influenced political opinions, as evidenced primarily by the general attitude toward the political parties and established politicians. The last parliamentary elections rather accurately reflected this attitude with regard to all the parties running.

Today, the picture is as follows: 27%-30% support the Left; 12%-16%, the national-democratic parties; 8%-12%, the centrist bloc, and the remaining 50% just do not care.

There is a noticeable setback in people confidence in the political leadership. Compared to October 1997, this decline has been registered with regard to Leonid Kuchma, Valery Pustovoitenko, and Oleksandr Moroz. Oleksandr Tkachenko is the only exception as his ratings have grown by almost 7%.

After all, the less the man in the street is affected by big-time politics, the better. This is a rule recognized by every civilized society. Political passions take hold of the individual only when he is climbing up the party ladder. George Orwell wrote fifty years ago that almost no one in Great Britain believes that there is enough room at the top for everybody and most do not want to get there anyway. Instead, they want good jobs and a real chance for their children. Similar considerations are indubitably prevalent in Ukraine.